WNBA
Las Vegas Aces
Aces
Golden State Valkyries
Valkyries
Whale Activity Detected
$93476 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 33 trades
Kalshi: 267 trades
Largest: $5400
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGALas Vegas Aces
Golden State Valkyries
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
5.4
Moneyline
GOL -219
/
LAS 219
Win Probability
69%
-
31%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
Get Daily Picks
AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.
You're in!
Already subscribed!
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries
+1.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Golden State Valkyries
56%
Lean
"Valkyries +1.5: Whale signal ($93K, 85% home) + injury advantage (+3.4% net) create slight edge; lean with 0.5u."
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
48%
Book Implied
48%
Edge
0.0%
Line Movement
Current
LV -1.5 (Home -105 / Away -115), Total 169.5, ML Home +110 / Away -130
Movement
No significant movement detected
Aces missing Dana Evans (out) and Jewell Loyd (day-to-day) — net -10.3% impact
Valkyries missing Iliana Rupert (out) — net -6.9% impact
Whale signal: 85% of volume on Valkyries, $93K total (strong tier)
No edge on moneyline; calibrated matches market. Whale signal and injury impact suggest value on Valkyries spread.
FULL ANALYSIS
Data quality is poor (38%) — no Monte Carlo, sharp/public, or prediction market data. Bayesian fusion shows market efficiency on moneyline (47.6% each side). Whale signal is the strongest indicator: 18 profitable wallets put $93K on Valkyries (85% volume). Injuries also favor home: Aces lose more (-10.3% vs -6.9%) with Loyd day-to-day. Spread pick on Valkyries +1.5 is a lean with slight positive EV. Player props on Wilson, Gray, and Burton are model projections with moderate confidence. Avoid moneyline and total due to no edge.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signal (18 profitable wallets, $93K volume) heavily favors Valkyries. No other sharp data available, but this is a strong contrarian indicator given public likely on Aces.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
50%
Golden State Valkyries 110
- No edge; Bayesian posterior matches market implied probability
SPREAD PICK
○
56%
Golden State Valkyries 1.5
- Injury impact favors Valkyries (+3.4% net) and whale signal aligns with home side; slight positive EV on +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
49%
UNDER 169.5
- Injuries to key scorers (Evans, Loyd, Rupert) could lower scoring, but no quantitative model available
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Aces by 8+ over expansion Valkyries: Wilson (24.3 ppg) vs no rim protection (Rupert out), model shows +26 EV on spread
Partner Spotlight
Want to reach bettors who use data?
partnerships@degendailynews.com21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700