Home › MLS › FC Dallas @ D.C. United
MLS
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
Dallas
D.C. United
United
D.C. United
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
FC Dallas FC Dallas 0.5
"Omega even spread/total 13.0 vs market -0.5/2.5 = Dallas ML +205 has +13.2 EV"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
50%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE FC Dallas None
65%
TOTAL over 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

FC Dallas

D.C. United

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
D.C -100 / FC -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
FC Dallas @ D.C. United
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

FC Dallas @ D.C. United

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Dallas 64% Sharp Lean
"Omega even spread/total 13.0 vs market -0.5/2.5 = Dallas ML +205 has +13.2 EV"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current DC -0.5 (115 / -160), Total 2.5, ML +120 / +205
Movement No movement data
FC Dallas ML +205 offers +13.2 EV vs omega 50% win prob (breakeven 66.2%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO pegs even matchup at 0.0 spread and 13.0 total vs market's DC -0.5/2.5, creating clear value on Dallas +0.5 (-160) and especially ML +205 with 50% model prob. Total discrepancy massive at 10.5pts overvalue despite totals losing in calibration. Props capped at 65 max w/o market lines; Musa/Baribo goals lead value.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD FC Dallas 0.5
+4.8 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE FC Dallas None
+13.2 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 2.5
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
FC Dallas 210
  • Market +210 undervalues Dallas ML vs omega's even 50/50 projection (breakeven 32.3%, our 50%)
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
FC Dallas 0.5
  • Omega spread at 0.0 vs market DC -0.5 creates 0.5pt discrepancy favoring Dallas +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
OVER 2.5
  • Omega total 13.0 vs market 2.5 shows massive 10.5pt overreaction/underpricing
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dallas +0.5 (-155) catches 0.5pt omega spread edge in pick'em matchup, +3.1 EV
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700