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NBA
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
Jazz
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK +0.4% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
New Orleans Pelicans New Orleans Pelicans -16.0
"Pelicans -16 on dual-model Poisson/NegBin agreement (+16.3/+16.5 margins), but no market line exists — 0u display lean with the injury-cascade prop edge on Trey Murphy III 24.5 points"
Win Prob
81%
Edge
+4.6%
MONEYLINE New Orleans Pelicans None
55%
TOTAL over 242.0
55%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.5% divergence on spread with moderate signal. RLM detected on spread, total.
Sharp: away Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$125493 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (80% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 50 trades Kalshi: 11 trades Largest: $27978
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-16.0
Total
242.0
Win Prob
80.8%
ML
-420 / 420

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Utah Jazz

New Orleans Pelicans

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -220 / 180 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -216 / 186 -
Value Line - -200 / 163 -
Sharp Action Best Line -5.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus -5.5 (-105) ↓ - -
Value Line -4.5 (-118) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 234.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 235.0 (-109)
Value Line - - Over 235.5 (-110)
De-Vigged Fair Value 101 / -101 -203 / 203 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Utah Jazz

J
Jusuf Nurkic
(C) out — Nurkic (foot) is out for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans.
Out
M
Mo Bamba
(C) day-to-day — Bamba is questionable for Wednesday's game in New Orleans due to a sprained right ankle.
Day-To-Day
J
Jaren Jackson Jr.
(F) out — Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Out
T
Trey Alexander
(G) out — Alexander won't play Wednesday against the Grizzlies due to a left knee bone bruise.
Out

New Orleans Pelicans

J
Jordan Poole
(G) out — Poole (ankle) is listed as probable for Wednesday's game against Utah.
Out
T
Trey Murphy III
(F) day-to-day — Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game versus the Jazz.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yves Missi
(C) out — Missi (knee) won't play in Saturday's game against Atlanta.
Out
Game Preview
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -5.5 (-105)
Total Over 234.5
Key Injuries
Jusuf Nurkic Out
Mo Bamba Day-To-Day
Jordan Poole Out
Trey Murphy III Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: New Orleans Pelicans (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T23:13:52.507945 UTC

Model sets home ML at -420 (80.8% win prob) — well beyond the -250 hard filter (76.2% breakeven), and our own 80.8% makes the price roughly fair, i.e., zero edge either way.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T23:13:52.528283 UTC

Murray and Poole both OUT remove the team's top two backcourt initiators, pushing 30%+ combined usage onto Murphy; model projection is season-average-plus-injury-cascade lift.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Pelicans 60% Lean
"Pelicans -16 on dual-model Poisson/NegBin agreement (+16.3/+16.5 margins), but no market line exists — 0u display lean with the injury-cascade prop edge on Trey Murphy III 24.5 points"
81% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 81%
Book Implied 76%
Edge +4.6%
Line Movement
Current Model-implied: Pelicans -16.0, total 242.0 (source omega_model)
Movement No market line movement — no sportsbook odds posted for this game
FULL ANALYSIS
Model says Pelicans big: Poisson and NegBin both land right at -16 (129.1-112.8 expected) with 80.8% home win prob, but with no market line to verify against and Utah getting Jackson Jr. and Nurkic back nowhere, this is a display-tier lean at best. The -420-equivalent ML is a hard PASS by the juice filter. Real value reading is the injury cascade: Murphy III and Queen get massive usage bumps with Murray, Poole, and Missi all OUT for New Orleans.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans -16.0
60%
MONEYLINE New Orleans Pelicans None
55%
TOTAL over 242.0
55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
New Orleans Pelicans None
  • Model sets home ML at -420 (80.8% win prob) — well beyond the -250 hard filter (76.2% breakeven), and our own 80.8% makes the price roughly fair, i.e., zero edge either way
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
New Orleans Pelicans -16.0
  • Dual-model convergence: scoring model expected score margin (129.1-112.8 = +16.3) and NegBin (+16.5) both land on a ~16-point home spread with Utah missing Jackson Jr
  • and Nurkic up front
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 242.0
  • scoring model total (242.0) and Decomposed Ratings (245.0) agree on a 242-245 range, but totals are our weakest market (48.7% historical WR) and no posted market line exists to compare against
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pelicans -16 on dual-model Poisson/NegBin agreement (+16.3/+16.5 margins), but no market line exists — 0u display lean with the injury-cascade prop edge on Trey Murphy III 24.5 points
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