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MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.5% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
"ARI ML +109: Bayesian edge +10.7% as models regress BAL overvalue (49.5% posterior home win vs 56.7% implied), MC confirms near coinflip"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
62%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$18993 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (78% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 12 trades Largest: $4102
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +131.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
31.4%
ML
219 / -219

Player Props Engine

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -135 / 113 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -127 / 115 -
Value Line - -136 / 108 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (310) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (160) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 172 / -172 -121 / 121 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — Kelly (back) will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to make his season debut Tuesday in Baltimore, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gabriel Moreno
(C) out — Moreno (back) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Phillies.
Out
J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has thrown multiple bullpen sessions since late March, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel (knee) continues to get at-bats and lightly run out of the batter's box in simulated games at Arizona's training camp, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out

Baltimore Orioles

A
Adley Rutschman
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Craig Albernaz said after Sunday's win against the Giants that the results of Rutschman's (ankle) MRI were encouraging, and the catcher may not require a lengthy stay on the injured list, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) out — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz announced after Sunday's win against the Giants that Mountcastle has been diagnosed with a fractured fourth metacarpal in his left foot and will miss some time, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Tyler O'Neill
(RF) 7-day IL — O'Neill suffered a concussion while he was dehydrated from an illness Thursday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
7-Day IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Enns on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left foot infection.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 15-day IL — Baltimore placed Hiraldo on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right shoulder inflammation, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) has gone 5-for-18 (.278) with two doubles, three RBI, one run scored and through five minor-league rehab appearances with Triple-A Norfolk.
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Kittredge
(RP) 15-day IL — Kittredge (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — Crouse (lat) struck out two and allowed two earned runs on three hits over an inning of relief Saturday in the Orioles' 8-6 win over the Pirates in his Grapefruit League debut.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keegan Akin
(RP) 10-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Sunday that Akin (adductor) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — The Orioles placed Kjerstad on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right hamstring strain.
10-Day-IL
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Payton Eeles
(2B) day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (310)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Merrill Kelly 15-Day-IL
Gabriel Moreno Out
Adley Rutschman 10-Day-IL
Ryan Mountcastle Out
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 60% Lean
"ARI ML +109: Bayesian edge +10.7% as models regress BAL overvalue (49.5% posterior home win vs 56.7% implied), MC confirms near coinflip"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current BAL -1.5 -131 / ARI +1.5 +109 | ML BAL -131 / ARI +109 | Total 8.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
+EV on ARI ML as our 54% exceeds breakeven 47.8% by 6.2%; spread ARI +1.5 covers ~65% in MC sims
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=423 — ML profitable in strong tier; reduce all conf due to N<50 vs these teams
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives ARI 54% ML win prob vs market 43.3% implied (+10.7pt edge), backed by omega ML -219 and MC 47.3% ARI win; equal -10% injury hits both sides. No pitchers or weather limits conviction, but sharp ML away divergence adds minor confirm. Totals model projects 24+ but historical WR 48% caps to lean.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
+4.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+5.5 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Arizona Diamondbacks 109
  • Bayesian posterior 49.5% home win (ARI 50.5%) vs market 56.7% implied, +6% edge on dog
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC margin -0.1 pts show ARI +1.5 covers 65%+ vs market implying 44%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.5
  • Omega total 24.0 and MC 24.7 expected vs market 8.5 implies massive over bias
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Arizona -0.0 pick'em (+5.2 EV, 58% cover per Bayesian/MC) vs omega even spread; whales confirm away lean
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