Home › NBA › Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans
NBA
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
Jazz
137 - 156
Final
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 7.5
"Omega 4.5pt spread edge Jazz +7.5, 38pt total edge under 241.5 on injury-ravaged squads; +9.8 EV Jazz ML"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.2%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Utah Jazz None
67%
TOTAL under 241.5
70%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
-3.0
Edge: +4.5
Total
203.0
Edge: -38.5
Win Prob
54.2%
ML
-119 / 119

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Utah Jazz

New Orleans Pelicans

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Utah Jazz

A
Ace Bailey
(G) day-to-day — Bailey (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New Orleans.
Day-To-Day
E
Elijah Harkless
(G) out — Harkless (hamstring) is listed out for Tuesday's game against New Orleans.
Out
K
Keyonte George
(G) out — George (hamstring) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Pelicans.
Out
I
Isaiah Collier
(G) out — Collier (hamstring) is out for Tuesday's game against New Orleans.
Out
L
Lauri Markkanen
(F) out — Markkanen (hip) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.
Out
J
Jusuf Nurkic
(C) out — Nurkic is scheduled to undergo season-ending nose surgery Wednesday, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
J
Jaren Jackson Jr.
(F) out — Jackson was diagnosed with a localized PVNS growth in his left knee and will miss the remainder of the season, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
W
Walker Kessler
(C) out — Kessler will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tony Jones of The Athletic reports.
Out

New Orleans Pelicans

T
Trey Murphy III
(F) day-to-day — Murphy (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Jazz.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yves Missi
(C) day-to-day — Missi (hand) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Jazz.
Day-To-Day
K
Karlo Matkovic
(F) out — Matkovic (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Jazz.
Out
D
Dejounte Murray
(G) out — Murray (hand) is out for Tuesday's game against the Jazz.
Out
B
Bryce McGowens
(G) out — McGowens (toe) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Jazz.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Utah Jazz
Jazz
137
-
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
156
Utah Jazz 7.5
65% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Utah Jazz 65% Sharp Lean
"Omega 4.5pt spread edge Jazz +7.5, 38pt total edge under 241.5 on injury-ravaged squads; +9.8 EV Jazz ML"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.2%
Line Movement
Open NO -7.5 / 241.5
Current NO -7.5 / 241.5
Movement No movement detected
Jazz ML +245 vs our 54.2% (breakeven 44%) = +21% edge; heavy juice on -305 kills value
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=397 — NBA 195-202 (49.1% N=397); lean spreads/moneylines profitable, totals losing
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega -3/203 crushes market -7.5/241.5 with 4.5pt spread + 38.5pt total edge on depleted rosters both sides. MC 55.4% home win but away covers 49% at -3; sharp 2% spread edge to Jazz. +EV Jazz ML 245 (our 54% prob) despite -305 juice killing home value.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 2.0% spread + 1.4% ML to away; total sharp 17.6% over but omega total edge -38.5pts under
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Utah Jazz 7.5
+5.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Utah Jazz None
+9.8 EV 67% 1.5u
TOTAL under 241.5
+7.1 EV 70% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 61%
New Orleans Pelicans -119
  • MC 56.2% home win exceeds -119 breakeven (54.4%) by 1.8%; model moneylines profitable in lean tier
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New Orleans Pelicans -3.0
  • MC shows Pelicans cover -3.0 in 49.7% of 10k sims vs 50% breakeven, marginal edge from omega_line anchor
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 203.0
  • MC under 203.0 hits 49.6% vs 52.4% breakeven; model totals profitable in lean tier but losing higher tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pelicans ML -119 (+3.1EV): MC 56.2% win > 54.4% breakeven despite injury carnage both ways
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