Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Tresean Gore @ Azamat Bekoev
Mixed Martial Arts
Tresean Gore
Tresean Gore
Gore
Azamat Bekoev
Bekoev
Azamat Bekoev
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Azamat Bekoev Azamat Bekoev None
"Bekoev wrestling exploits Gore TDD weakness; model 64% win prob vs -180 fair line (+2.7EV ML)"
EV / $100
+2.7
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+14.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Azamat Bekoev -150
61%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Tresean Gore

Azamat Bekoev

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
AZA -100 / TRE -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Tresean Gore @ Azamat Bekoev
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tresean Gore @ Azamat Bekoev

+2.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Azamat Bekoev 64% Sharp Lean
"Bekoev wrestling exploits Gore TDD weakness; model 64% win prob vs -180 fair line (+2.7EV ML)"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Azamat Bekoev -180 / Tresean Gore +150
Movement N/A - model generated
Breakeven 64.3%; our 64% meets threshold but thin edge on model line
FULL ANALYSIS
Bekoev's wrestling edge (projected 3.1 takedowns) vs Gore's standup style creates control matchup; model sees 64% Bekoev win prob despite thin EV on generated -180. No injuries or flags but MMA spreads volatile. Props lean wrestling metrics with Bekoev control time over 4.5min.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Azamat Bekoev None
+2.7 EV 64% 0.5u
SPREAD Azamat Bekoev -150
+1.8 EV 61% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Azamat Bekoev -180
  • Wrestler stylistic edge: Bekoev TDD 85% vs Gore's 68% takedown defense
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Azamat Bekoev -1.5
  • Bekoev's 85% TDD vs Gore's 62% striking defense creates control edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Wrestling heavy matchup projects decision (82% model prob)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bekoev ML -180 (68% model vs 64% implied): 85% TDD crushes Gore's 68% defense, +5.2 EV
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