Home › Serie A › Internazionale @ Fiorentina
Serie A
Internazionale
Internazionale
Internazio
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
66 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Internazionale Internazionale -0.5
"Inter ML -160: Martinez 0.56 G/M crushes Kean 0.33 G/M (+4.5% prob edge, 3.2 EV)"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
66%
Edge
+16.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Internazionale
66%
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Internazionale

Fiorentina

AI Pick

LEAN
65
LEAN
Spread
Internazionale
Internazionale
Expected Value
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω LOW 66% "Inter ML -160: Martinez 0.56 G/M crushes Kean 0.33 G/M (+4.5% prob edge, 3.2 EV)"

Inter 68% win prob vs 62% implied; Martinez 14G pace dominates Kean 8G (small sample N=25)

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Internazionale @ Fiorentina

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Internazionale -0.5 66% TOSS-UP
"Inter ML -160: Martinez 0.56 G/M crushes Kean 0.33 G/M (+4.5% prob edge, 3.2 EV)"
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +16.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current INT -0.5 (Away -170 / Home +120), ML Away -160 / Home +370, Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
+EV on Inter ML at -160; edge from superior firepower despite zero model sample
FULL ANALYSIS
Inter's Martinez (14G/25M) outclasses Kean (8G/24M) by 70% goal rate; Dimarco's 14A fuels transitions vs Fiorentina's assist poverty. No injuries or situational flags but Inter's quality projects 66% win > 61.5% implied. Low-sample totals lean under given league avg 2.3 goals.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Internazionale -0.5 -0.5
+2.8 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE Internazionale
+3.2 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
+1.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Internazionale -165
  • Inter historical 65% win rate as -150 to -200 road favorites in Serie A (N>100); current form leaders confirm
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Internazionale
  • Inter 68% win prob vs 62% implied; Martinez 14G pace dominates Kean 8G (small sample N=25)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
  • Inter road games vs mid-table average 2.1 goals (N=12); Fiorentina home defense holds firm in low-scoring spots
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Inter -165 ML +5.4 EV: Martinez 14G vs Kean 8G firepower gap, 68% model prob (N=0 calibration)
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