Spread: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+178)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T00:35:51.172735 UTC
Market Consensus fair 65.6% vs retail +178/+180 implies +50.0% EV with RLM YES on away spread.
MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 32.3% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: away
Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$108522 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 36 trades
Kalshi: 90 trades
Largest: $18919
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGACleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | -126 / 106 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | - | -120 / 109 | - |
| Value Line | - | -124 / 104 | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | 1.5 (-220) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | -1.5 (176) ↓ | - | - |
| Value Line | 1.5 (-215) ↓ | - | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | - | Over 7.5 (-135) |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 7.5 (-114) |
| Value Line | - | - | Over 7.5 (-120) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | 191 / -191 | -115 / 115 | O/U -106 / 106 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Cleveland Guardians
C
Colin Holderman
R
Rhys Hoskins
A
Andrew Walters
Chicago White Sox
L
Luis Castillo
P
Prelander Berroa
K
Ky Bush
J
Jordan Leasure
J
Joey Bart
M
Mike Vasil
T
Tanner Murray
B
Brooks Baldwin
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-06T10:26:17.749959 UTC
Model projection: DeLauter is a high-contact hitter (.287 avg) and the Guardians' offense is projected for 4.5 runs. Against a White Sox pitching staff with injury issues, he should get at least one hit. Confidence capped at 60 due to unvalidated roster.
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
+50.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians
64%
Sharp Lean
"Guardians +1.5 (+186) shows +50% EV vs Pinnacle fair 65.6% with RLM + $108K whale confirming away"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
55%
Edge
0.0%
Line Movement
Open
Chicago White Sox -1.5 / ML -123 / Total 8.0
Current
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-194) / Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (186) / ML -123/102 / Total 8.0
Movement
No significant line movement detected
No edge vs market on moneyline at current price; vig only
FULL ANALYSIS
Market -123/8.0 shows zero Bayesian edge (55.2% vs 55.2%). Real signal is Tier 2 only: Pinnacle spread fair 65.6% away vs +186 retail for +50% EV with RLM YES and $108K extreme whale on Cleveland. Take Guardians +1.5, pass juiced ML and lean under 8.0 at reduced confidence.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 32.3% on spread to away with RLM YES (strong), moneyline sharp to away moderate, Pinnacle fair spread away 65.6% vs retail, extreme whale $108522 on away across 28 wallets confirming
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
45%
Cleveland Guardians 102
- No calibrated edge (+0.0pp, posterior 44.8% vs market 44.8%); sharp lean away only from Tier 2 signals
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Cleveland Guardians -1.5
- Market Consensus de-vigged fair 65.6% away vs retail +186 implies 34.9%, +50% EV with RLM toward away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 8.0
- Sharp side under (2.7% edge, fair under 48.5%) with neutral market total 8.0
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
White Sox coin-flip lean: 53.1% posterior vs 51.5% prior (+1.6pp) but $44K whale on Guardians caps it at 55
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