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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 1.5
"CLE +113 ML: Omega 67% win prob vs mkt 47% implied (+10.4 EV), fade juiced TOR"
EV / $100
+9.1
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
62%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$3199263 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (80% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 1492 trades Kalshi: 417 trades Largest: $489828
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
32.7%
ML
205 / -205

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -139 / 116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -133 / 120 -
Value Line - -143 / 117 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (305) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (155) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 167 / -167 -127 / 127 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
S
Steven Kwan
(LF) day-to-day — Kwan was scratched from the lineup for Saturday's game against Toronto with a stiff neck, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out

Toronto Blue Jays

T
Trey Yesavage
(SP) 15-day IL — Yesavage (shoulder) will start Tuesday's game against the Red Sox, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Garcia (elbow) will throw live batting practice Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes will receive an MRI on his left hamstring after leaving Friday's game against Cleveland, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
George Springer
(RF) 10-day IL — Springer (toe) is hitting on the field and running ahead of Friday's game against the Guardians and could return to running the bases within the next few days, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(3B) 10-day IL — Barger (ankles) is ramping up his baseball activities, with the next steps in his rehab program being running the bases and hitting live pitching, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Berrios (elbow) is scheduled to make his next rehab start for Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(SP) 15-day IL — Toronto optioned Estrada to Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk underwent surgery Tuesday to have a screw inserted into his fractured left thumb and is expected to be sidelined about six weeks, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) out — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (305)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Steven Kwan Day-To-Day
Trey Yesavage 15-Day-IL
Yimi Garcia 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays

+9.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 60% Lean Calibrated
"CLE +113 ML: Omega 67% win prob vs mkt 47% implied (+10.4 EV), fade juiced TOR"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current TOR -136 ML / O/U 8.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
+EV on CLE ML at +113 (breakeven 47%, our 52%) and CLE +1.5; omega line pick'em vs market TOR fav
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega ML away -205 crushes market -136 TOR (67% vs 58% prob), Bayesian fuses to 48% TOR true win prob for +10 EV CLE ML. MC even 10.5-10.7 scoreline backs pick'em spread value CLE +1.5, whales home extreme but model disagreement VERY_LOW caps conf. Totals mismatch huge (omega 24 vs 8) screams over but historical 48.7% WR demands lean sizing.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 1.5
+9.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
+10.4 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+5.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Cleveland Guardians 113
  • Omega ML away -205 (67% prob) vs market +113 (47% implied); Bayesian edge -6.2% away
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Cleveland Guardians 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market TOR -1.5; MC away covers +1.5 62.7% fair value per +EV analysis
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 and MC proj 21.2 vs market 8.0; MC over 24 just 23% but implies blowout scoring model
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cleveland -2.2 RL +55% EV Pinnacle fair vs retail + sharp 20.2% divergence, model high total 21 vs 8
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