Home › MLB › Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
0 - 2
Final
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays +113 (53.8% model vs 46.9% implied +6.9pp EV), Scholtens edge + MC 52.8% cover even spread"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
54%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
30.2%
ML
231 / -231

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 121 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (310) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (156) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-108)
De-Vigged Fair Value 166 / -166 -126 / 126 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Johnson on the 7-day injured list due to a lower-back strain, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) struck out four over two scoreless innings in his first rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A Durham.
15-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Wilson (back) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — Matz's (elbow) stint on the 15-day injured list is not expected to last long, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) is tracking toward a return during the Rays' series in Boston this weekend, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

R
Ranger Suarez
(SP) day-to-day — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Suarez's (hamstring) next start will come next week "sometime in the Philly series," Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 10-day IL — The Red Sox placed Anthony (wrist) on the 10-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Tuesday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox placed Gonzalez (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) allowed one hit and struck out two over a scoreless inning for Double-A Portland on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Coulombe
(RP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Coulombe on the 15-day injured list Monday with cervical spasms.
15-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
0
-
Boston Red Sox
Sox
2
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
62% conf
L

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 62% Lean
"Rays +113 (53.8% model vs 46.9% implied +6.9pp EV), Scholtens edge + MC 52.8% cover even spread"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.8%
Line Movement
Current BOS -1.5 -136 / TB +1.5 +114, ML BOS -136 / TB +113, Total 8.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
+11.4pp calibrated edge on Rays ML vs vigged implied 46.9%
FULL ANALYSIS
Rays 25-12 record crushes BOS 16-22, Scholtens (3.18 ERA) owns Early (3.79), MC sim 9.4-8.6 Rays edge despite Fenway. Bayesian fuses to 53.8% Rays ML vs 46.9% implied, over 8.5 at 65.2% posterior as decomposed models project 18 total. Whales heavy BOS but sharp +EV confirms Rays value, BOS home 6-11 split kills.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp ML edge 1.3% away + +EV spread away 62.4% fair value, despite spread sharp home divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+12.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+14.6 EV 54% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+18.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Tampa Bay Rays 113
  • Bayesian posterior 53.8% Rays win vs market 46.9% implied (+6.9pp)
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • +EV analysis shows 62.4% Rays cover fair value vs retail BOS -1.5 -136
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs 50% market (+15.2pp), MC proj 18.0 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays 56.8% Bayesian posterior covers pick'em (+4.8 EV) + MC 72.5% under 22.5 despite whale fade
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE