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Osasuna
Osasuna
Osasuna
Alavés
Alavés
Alavés
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Osasuna Osasuna 0.5
"Osasuna +180 ML +4.6 EV: 10-7-12 road form >> Alavés 8-7-14 home garbage despite -0.5 pricing"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Osasuna None
65%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Osasuna

Alavés

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
ALA -100 / OSA -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Osasuna @ Alavés
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Osasuna @ Alavés

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Osasuna 60% Lean
"Osasuna +180 ML +4.6 EV: 10-7-12 road form >> Alavés 8-7-14 home garbage despite -0.5 pricing"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current ALA -0.5 (150 / -215), ML Alavés +165 / Osasuna +180, Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
Osasuna ML +180 offers +4.6 EV vs vig-inflated home pricing; breakeven 35.7% vs our 58% model prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Osasuna's better 10-7-12 record massively undervalued at +180 ML vs Alavés 8-7-14 home flops; model sees 58% prob for 12% edge. Budimir's 14 goals torch weak home D. Under 2.5 fits LaLiga 2.4 gpg norm but totals losing historically.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Osasuna 0.5
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Osasuna None
+4.6 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Alavés 150
  • Breakeven 40% for +150, model projects 46% home win prob from Poisson (Alavés home xG edge +0.3)
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Alavés -0.5
  • Home field + Budimir's 14 goals (0.50 G/M) vs Alavés weak defense gives model 1.6-1.2 expected score edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • LaLiga avg 2.3 goals/game + both teams low-output leaders (Boyé 0.39 G/M, Budimir 0.50); model total 2.1
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Alavés -0.5 (+135) home edge model 1.6-1.2 score proj, +1.8 EV despite vig
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