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Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins
New Jersey Devils
Devils
New Jersey Devils
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +228.7% EV
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils -1.5
"Devils -1.5 (56%) on Penguins injury pileup (5 key outs) vs NJD depth losses, model exp +0.6 diff"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New Jersey Devils None
58%
TOTAL under 6.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 51.2% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread, total.
Sharp: home Boost: +4

Player Props Engine

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Pittsburgh Penguins

New Jersey Devils

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -108 / -112 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -105 / -107 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (360) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-270) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 2.5 (140)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value -250 / 250 101 / -101 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Penguins

S
Stuart Skinner
(G) day-to-day — Skinner (eye) said Tuesday that he feels good and his vision has improved, according to Seth Rorabaugh of Tribune-Review Sports.
Day-To-Day
C
Caleb Jones
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
B
Blake Lizotte
(C) out — Lizotte (upper body) will be reevaluated in four weeks.
Out
F
Filip Hallander
(C) Injured Reserve — Hallander (leg) was recalled from his conditioning stint with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Friday, Seth Rorabaugh of Tribune-Review Sports reports.
Injured Reserve
P
Peyton Kettles
(D) out — out
Out

New Jersey Devils

A
Arseny Gritsyuk
(RW) out — out
Out
B
Brett Pesce
(D) out — Pesce (lower body) is questionable to return to the lineup before the end of the 2025-26 regular season, Amanda Stein of the Devils' official site reports Sunday.
Out
S
Stefan Noesen
(RW) Injured Reserve — Noesen (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of the season, Kristy Flannery of The Hockey News reports Sunday.
Injured Reserve
Z
Zack MacEwen
(RW) Injured Reserve — MacEwen had knee surgery and will be lost for the remainder of the season, Kristy Flannery of The Hockey News reports Saturday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (360)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Stuart Skinner Day-To-Day
Caleb Jones Injured Reserve
Arseny Gritsyuk Out
Brett Pesce Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New Jersey Devils 56% Lean
"Devils -1.5 (56%) on Penguins injury pileup (5 key outs) vs NJD depth losses, model exp +0.6 diff"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current New Jersey Devils -1.5 / Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 | Total 6.0 | NJD ML -135 / PIT ML +115
Movement N/A (model-generated)
No positive EV side at model odds; Devils ML breakeven 57.4% exceeds our 55% prob
Model: 47.7% win rate | n=298 — NHL 47.7% overall; moneylines profitable in Lean tier but data limited here
FULL ANALYSIS
Devils get slight model edge (55% win prob, 3.3-2.7 exp goals) from Penguins' 5 injuries including Skinner DTD vs NJD's 4 depth outs. Crosby (72 pts) carries PIT but Hughes/Bratt/Hischier trio healthier for home side. Poor data quality caps all conf at toss-up; NHL variance high late season.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New Jersey Devils -1.5
+1.2 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New Jersey Devils None
+0.8 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.0
+0.4 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
New Jersey Devils -135
  • NHL home ice (1.02x win prob boost) + Hughes/Bratt/Hischier trio (72/48/26 pts) vs Crosby aging curve
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
New Jersey Devils -0.5
  • Model Poisson projects Devils 3.3-2.7 win (0.6 goal edge) with home ice despite Devils injuries
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 6.0
  • Model projects 6.0 total exactly; NHL variance high but calibration shows totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Devils ML -135 (model 57% win prob, +1.8EV) home vs injury-hit Penguins; lean tier ML 56.4% WR profitable
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