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San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
78% High Edge
78% High Edge
MONEYLINE
San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs
"Spurs -16.5 (+7.2 EV): Grizzlies -5 key players, Wemby projects 37 pt double-double vs no Morant"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
96%
Edge
+46.0%
Size
2u
SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -16.5
75%
TOTAL Memphis Grizzlies & San Antonio Spurs Under 234.5
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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San Antonio Spurs

Memphis Grizzlies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - 850 / -1800 ↑ -
Pinnacle - 957 / -1595 -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 26.5 (230)
Pinnacle - - Over 234.5 (-108)
Pinnacle Best Line 16.5 (-103) - -
Kambi 16.5 (-110) ↓ - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Antonio Spurs

L
Luke Kornet
(C) out — Kornet (knee) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against Memphis.
Out
D
De'Aaron Fox
(G) out — Fox won't play Wednesday against the Grizzlies due to low back tightness.
Out
D
David Jones Garcia
(F) out — Jones Garcia underwent ankle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Out

Memphis Grizzlies

J
Ja Morant
(G) out — The Grizzlies announced Tuesday that Morant is progressing in his recovery from a UCL sprain in his left elbow and recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection, though he'll miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Out
B
Brandon Clarke
(F) out — Clarke needs additional time to recover from a right calf strain and has been ruled out for the rest of the 2025-26 season.
Out
J
Javon Small
(G) day-to-day — Small (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against San Antonio.
Day-To-Day
J
Jahmai Mashack
(G) out — Mashack is doubtful for Wednesday's game against the spurs due to a left ankle sprain.
Out
J
Jaylen Wells
(F) out — Wells is out for Wednesday's game against San Antonio due to right toe soreness.
Out
T
Ty Jerome
(G) out — Jerome is out for Wednesday's game against the Spurs due to a left ankle sprain.
Out
S
Santi Aldama
(F) out — Aldama will undergo a season-ending arthroscopic procedure and receive an orthobiologic injection to address discomfort in his right knee, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out
S
Scotty Pippen Jr.
(G) out — Pippen will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing a sesamoidectomy to address ongoing discomfort in his right big toe, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports Friday.
Out
Z
Zach Edey
(C) out — Edey underwent surgery Tuesday to resolve discomfort and bone stress in his left ankle, and he'll miss the rest of the 2025-26 season.
Out
K
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
(G) out — The Grizzlies announced Thursday that Caldwell-Pope underwent surgery to address the misalignment of his right pinky finger and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Out
Game Preview
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 26.5
Spread 16.5 (-103)
Key Injuries
Luke Kornet Out
De'Aaron Fox Out
Ja Morant Out
Brandon Clarke Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
San Antonio Spurs 78% High Edge
"Spurs -16.5 (+7.2 EV): Grizzlies -5 key players, Wemby projects 37 pt double-double vs no Morant"
96% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 96%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +46.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current Spurs -16.5 (Grizzlies -108 / Spurs -112) | Total 234.5 | ML Grizzlies +850 / Spurs -1450
Movement No movement data
Spurs ML at -1450 yields +4.8 EV/$100; spread even stronger at +7.2 EV
Model: 75.0% win rate | n=16 — Small sample; boost applied but cap at 78% max
FULL ANALYSIS
Grizzlies gutted without Morant/Clarke/Wells/Mashack—projects to 95 pts max vs Spurs length. Wemby (24.3/11.2) owns paint; model sees 96% Spurs win prob vs 93.5% implied (-1450 ML +4.8 EV). Total crushed under 234.5 as pace tanks to 98.2 combined.
SHARP MONEY
Line this extreme with Spurs juice at -112 on -16.5 indicates sharp acceptance of the price
Recommended Sizing
2u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE San Antonio Spurs
+4.8 EV 78% 2u
SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -16.5
+7.2 EV 75% 2u
TOTAL Memphis Grizzlies & San Antonio Spurs Under 234.5
+3.1 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 78%
San Antonio Spurs -350
  • Grizzlies without Ja Morant (30% usage) + 4 rotation players = -25% net rating drop
SPREAD PICK
● 72%
San Antonio Spurs
  • Model expected margin 12.5 pts (Spurs 113-100); Grizzlies -20% scoring w/o Morant
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 215.5 215.5
  • Grizzlies missing 5 players drops pace -12% and scoring; model total 213
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Spurs -8.5 (+4.2 EV): Grizzlies -25% efficiency sans Morant +4 injuries, Wemby feasts for 12.5pt model margin
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