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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers None
"Tigers +2.2 at +160 (19.4% sharp divergence + $683K whale volume = 8.15 EV per $100) — Detroit is the clear side with a strong contrarion edge."
EV / $100
+4.7
Win Prob
54%
Edge
-3.5%
Size
1.0u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 2.2
68%
TOTAL under 8.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1405377 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 344 trades Kalshi: 66 trades Largest: $100000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
35.6%
ML
181 / -181

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 113 / -135 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 114 / -124 -
Value Line - 110 / -136 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-370) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-146) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value -139 / 139 119 / -119 O/U -103 / 103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

A
Ali Sanchez
(C) day-to-day — The Yankees selected Sanchez's contract from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Saturday.
Day-To-Day
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday that Grisham has resumed taking part in light on-field agility exercises and is making good progress in his recovery from a moderate right hamstring strain, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Fried (elbow) is expected to begin facing hitters by late June or early July, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

J
Jack Flaherty
(SP) 15-day IL — Flaherty (ankle) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Erie on Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Wenceel Perez
(RF) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Perez on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left orbital fracture, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (oblique) received a cortisone injection Friday and is expected to start up his rehab program in the next day or two, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) has been scratched from a scheduled start Sunday versus the White Sox due to a left hamstring injury, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 15-day IL — Smith (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Jobe (elbow) is expected to resume facing hitters in live batting practice "in a few weeks," Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-370)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Ali Sanchez Day-To-Day
Trent Grisham 10-Day-IL
Jack Flaherty 15-Day-IL
Wenceel Perez 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

+4.71 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 63% Sharp Lean
"Tigers +2.2 at +160 (19.4% sharp divergence + $683K whale volume = 8.15 EV per $100) — Detroit is the clear side with a strong contrarion edge."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 57%
Edge -3.5%
Line Movement
Open ML: NYY -135 / DET +113, Total 8.5
Current ML: NYY -135 / DET +113, Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement detected.
INJURY IMPACT: Both teams roughly equal (-7.8% each) — no net situational edge. PITCHER POWER: No probable pitchers announced — major uncertainty for total projection. DATA DEGRADATION: 64% data quality — reduce confidence by 3 points on all picks. NO LINE VELOCITY: Market stable, no sharp steam detected on total or spread lines.
Negative EV on Yankees ML — implied probability (57.4%) exceeds our model's win probability (53.9%). No edge on the moneyline. Spread and total present clearer opportunities.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is piling onto the Tigers side — 19.4% divergence on the spread, whale volume over $683K (EXTREME tier), and Pinnacle fair value all point to Detroit as the side. The Yankees are laying -135 on the road without Judge and Stanton, facing a Tigers team that owns sharp consensus. Pitcher uncertainty keeps totals unclear, but the under 8.5 has marginal play because both teams are beat up. Best value: Tigers +2.2 at +160 — strongest signal of the slate.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp vs Public analysis shows 19.4% edge divergence on the spread favoring away side (Detroit Tigers). Pinnacle fair value on spread: home 58.2%, away 41.8% — retail books offering +260 on Tigers spread. Whale consensus (67% volume-weighted, $683K total volume, EXTREME tier) aligns with sharp money on away side. Confirmation across three independent signals.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+4.7 EV 63% 1.0u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 2.2
+8.2 EV 68% 1.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Detroit Tigers 113
  • Sharp money (19.4% spread divergence) and whale consensus ($683K volume) both favor Tigers; Positive EV at +113 odds vs fair value of ~+106
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Detroit Tigers 2.2
  • Sharp money divergence (19.4%) and Pinnacle fair value (home 58.2%, away 41.8%) support Tigers covering +2.2 at +160; +EV of +50% vs sharp fair value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 8.5
  • Omega model's 22.5 total is clearly inflated due to missing pitcher data and lambda projection errors
  • Market at 8.5 reflects realistic scoring
  • Bayesian total posterior at 65.2% over is likely artifact of model failure — fade the over
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 8.0 at -110 — Bayesian posterior gives 65.2% probability, EV +7.8%, supported by Omega model projecting 22.5 runs. If the total is real, this is a misprice.
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