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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
"Bucs +8.5 at -105: getting 1.5 points of model value vs DAL -10.0, +4.7% EV despite QB uncertainty"
EV / $100
+4.7
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+2.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Buccaneers None
55%
TOTAL under 47.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 2.2% divergence on spread with moderate signal. RLM detected on spread, total.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$185165 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 33 trades Kalshi: 27 trades Largest: $47293
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-10.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
57.0
Edge: +9.5
Win Prob
85.9%
ML
-607 / 607

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -460 / 340 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -448 / 354 -
Value Line - -500 / 380 -
Sharp Action Best Line -7.5 (-115) - -
Market Consensus -8.0 (-103) ↓ - -
Value Line -8.5 (-110) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 47.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 47.5 (-115)
Value Line - - Over 47.5 (-110)
De-Vigged Fair Value 103 / -103 -412 / 412 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

K
Ko Kieft
(TE) active — Kieft (elbow) does not carry an injury designation into Thursday's game against the Cowboys, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Active
A
Antoine Winfield Jr.
(S) out — The Buccaneers have ruled out Winfield (ribs) for Thursday's game against the Cowboys.
Out
S
SirVocea Dennis
(LB) out — Dennis (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against Dallas, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Out
B
Benjamin Morrison
(CB) out — Morrison (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Cowboys, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Out
A
Anthony Nelson
(LB) active
Active
C
Chase McLaughlin
(PK) active — Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said Wednesday that McLaughlin (groin/hip) will play Thursday against the Cowboys, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Active
T
Tykee Smith
(S) active — Smith recorded six tackles (four solo) and a forced fumble during the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Active
J
Jacob Parrish
(CB) active — Parrish logged five solo tackles and two pass defenses (including an interception) during the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Active
J
Josiah Trotter
(LB) active — Trotter (knee) was a full participant in practice Tuesday.
Active
T
Tez Johnson
(WR) active — Johnson brought in both targets for 17 yards, rushed once for 10 yards and returned one punt for 13 yards during Tampa Bay's loss versus the Packers on Sunday.
Active
T
Ted Hurst III
(WR) active — Hurst caught two of his three targets for 25 yards in the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Active
S
Sean Tucker
(RB) active — Tucker rushed three times for 10 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-14 loss to the Packers.
Active
C
Cade Otton
(TE) active — Otton caught four of six targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 17-14 loss to the Packers.
Active
I
Ifeatu Melifonwu
(S) active — Head coach Todd Bowles said Melifonwu is likely to start at safety Thursday night against Dallas, Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reports.
Active
R
Rueben Bain Jr.
(LB) active — Bain (groin) was listed as a full participant on the Buccaneers' estimated injury report Monday, Brianna Dix of the team's official site reports.
Active
B
Baker Mayfield
(QB) out — out
Out
L
Luke Haggard
(G) active
Active
B
Billy Schrauth
(G) active
Active
D
DeMonte Capehart
(DT) active
Active
K
Kenny Gainwell
(RB) active — Gainwell rushed three times for five yards in Sunday's 17-14 loss to the Packers. He added two catches for 22 yards and a touchdown on two targets.
Active
E
Emeka Egbuka
(WR) active — Egbuka brought in two of four targets for 13 yards in the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Active
C
Chris Godwin Jr.
(WR) active — Godwin brought in six of seven targets for 31 yards in the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Active
J
Jalon Daniels
(QB) active — Daniels completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and rushed eight times for 55 yards in the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also recovered a fumble.
Active
B
Bucky Irving
(RB) active — Irving rushed 16 times for 61 yards in the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Active
R
Rakeem Nunez-Roches
(DT) active
Active

Dallas Cowboys

D
Drew Shelton
(OT) out — Shelton (hamstring) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Out
T
Tyler Smith
(G) Injured Reserve — Smith (thumb) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Injured Reserve
C
Cobie Durant
(CB) out — The Cowboys have ruled out Durant (hamstring) for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Out
D
DeMarvion Overshown
(LB) out — Overshown (hamstring) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Out
J
Jonathan Mingo
(WR) questionable — Mingo did not practice Wednesday due to an illness and is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Questionable
C
Caleb Downs
(S) active — Downs recorded seven total tackles (five solo) during Sunday's 34-30 win over Houston.
Active
R
Ryan Flournoy
(WR) active — Flournoy caught four of five targets for 37 yards in Dallas' 34-30 win over the Texans on Sunday.
Active
A
Ajani Cornelius
(OT) active
Active
E
Emari Demercado
(RB) active
Active
C
Caelen Carson
(CB) active
Active
C
Camden Brown
(WR) active
Active
J
James Houston
(LB) active
Active
J
Jake Ferguson
(TE) active — Ferguson caught three of four targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 34-30 win over the Texans.
Active
B
Brandon Aubrey
(PK) active — Aubrey went 2-for-4 on field-goal attempts and made all four PATs in Sunday's 34-30 win over the Texans.
Active
D
Dak Prescott
(QB) active — Prescott completed 32 of 45 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-30 win over the Texans. He added seven yards on two carries.
Active
G
George Pickens
(WR) active — Pickens caught two of three targets for 75 yards in Sunday's 34-30 win over the Texans.
Active
J
Javonte Williams
(RB) active — Williams carried the ball 19 times for 62 yards and three touchdowns while catching all five of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 34-30 win over the Texans.
Active
C
CeeDee Lamb
(WR) active — Lamb caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-30 win over the Texans.
Active
A
Alijah Clark
(S) active
Active
J
Joey Porter Jr.
(CB) active — Porter is active for Sunday's tilt against the Texans, Joe Hoyt of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Active
S
Shavon Revel Jr.
(CB) active — Revel (knee, ankle) does not carry an injury designation heading into Sunday's game against the Texans.
Active
M
Malik Hooker
(S) active — Hooker (forearm) does not carry an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against Houston.
Active
J
Jonathan Bullard
(DT) Injured Reserve — The Cowboys placed Bullard (calf) on injured reserve Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Injured Reserve
J
Jalen Thompson
(S) Injured Reserve — The Cowboys placed Thompson (hamstring) on injured reserve Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Markquese Bell
(S) active — Bell (dehydration) has returned to Sunday's contest against Baltimore, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Active
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread -7.5 (-115)
Total Over 47.5
Key Injuries
Ko Kieft Active
Antoine Winfield Jr. Out
Drew Shelton Out
Tyler Smith Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 (-105) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T09:55:13.926831 UTC

OMEGA line projects DAL -10.0, but market is only -8.5 — the Bucs get a full 1.5 points of value vs model, and the +8.5 at -105 is a positive CLV setup.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-08T05:13:00.589992 UTC

With Tyler Smith out, Dallas may lean on quick passing game. Lamb averages 88 yards last 10 games; line at 82.5 is slightly soft.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

+4.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 62% Lean
"Bucs +8.5 at -105: getting 1.5 points of model value vs DAL -10.0, +4.7% EV despite QB uncertainty"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +2.5%
Line Movement
Current DAL -8.5
Away QB out (Baker Mayfield) - massive offensive downgrade Home team missing key OL (Tyler Smith, Drew Shelton) - pass protection risk Cowboys missing defensive pieces (Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown) - secondary vulnerable
The market is giving the Buccaneers +8.5 at -105, but the model sees a 56% chance they cover, yielding +4.7% EV per $100.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market is giving the Bucs +8.5 despite losing Baker Mayfield, but OMEGA's model projects DAL -10.0 — that 1.5-point gap is real value on the underdog. The under at 47.5 is also interesting: the model's 57.0 projection is pre-injury, and without Mayfield, this game likely stays under. CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle are the sharpest prop plays given the OL injuries.
SHARP MONEY
The spread has moved from a wider line toward the Buccaneers despite the public likely backing Dallas at home. The -105 price on the Bucs +8.5 is a slight sharp lean indicator.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
+4.7 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Buccaneers None
+2.8 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 47.5
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 360
  • Bucs at +360 implies 21.7% win probability, but model sees 24% — a small +2.3% edge on a high-variance underdog with a backup QB
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
  • OMEGA line projects DAL -10.0, but market is only -8.5 — the Bucs get a full 1.5 points of value vs model, and the +8.5 at -105 is a positive CLV setup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 47.5
  • OMEGA projects 57.0 total, but market is 47.5 — a massive 9.5-point gap
  • However, without Mayfield, the Bucs offense likely stalls, pushing the game under the market total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dallas -8.5 lean: model -10.0 with +4.1 EV; over 47.5 lean: model 57.0 with +9.4 EV; -455 ML pass.
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