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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +56.1% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays ML +11.4pp Bayesian edge at +113 (+$14.6 EV), over 7.5 +15.2pp vs tiny 7.5 line (MC 19.5 proj)"
EV / $100
+12.5
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
55%
TOTAL over 7.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$811889 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 146 trades Kalshi: 655 trades Largest: $28500
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
30.2%
ML
231 / -231

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Rays

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -136 / 114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 118 -
Value Line - -134 / 108 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (163) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 175 / -175 -124 / 124 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

G
Garrett Cleavinger
(RP) 15-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Cleavinger (calf) is on track to rejoin the active roster "closer to the weekend," Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham activated Morgan (quadricep) from its 7-day injured list Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) is expected to resume his rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Tuesday or Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) is playing catch from 90 feet, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Pepiot's injured right hip felt "unstable" while the pitcher played catch Monday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays signed Grove to a major-league contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder surgery.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert earned the save in Sunday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, allowing two earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out one over one inning of relief.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
C
Cooper Ingle
(C) day-to-day — Ingle went 3-for-4 with a walk, two home runs, four RBI and an additional run scored for Triple-A Columbus on Sunday.
Day-To-Day
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — Armstrong struck out one over a scoreless inning to pick up a hold in Friday's 4-1 win over the Cubs.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Garrett Cleavinger 15-Day-IL
Edwin Uceta 60-Day-IL
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Cooper Ingle Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

+12.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 60% Lean
"Rays ML +11.4pp Bayesian edge at +113 (+$14.6 EV), over 7.5 +15.2pp vs tiny 7.5 line (MC 19.5 proj)"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.8%
Line Movement
Current CLE -1.5 -136 / TB +1.5 +115 (est), ML CLE -136 / TB +113, Total 7.5 -110
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Net injury advantage Rays (-1.3%) Away recent form superior (4.3 vs 3.6)
+11.4pp edge on TB ML at +113; +15.2pp on over 7.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Rays 53.8% ML win prob vs market 42.4% (+11.4pp, $14.6 EV) anchored by omega ML TB -231 and MC 48.5% away win; injury net favors Rays -1.3%. Over 7.5 at 65.2% posterior ($24 EV) with MC 19.5 and omega 22.5 totals crushing market line. Whales extreme CLE ($812K) + sharp spread home contradict, no pitchers degrade; cap at leans.
SHARP MONEY
14.8% sharp edge on CLE spread + extreme whale volume home ($812K, institutional tier); ML sharp weak away
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+12.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+14.6 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Rays 113
  • Bayesian posterior 53.8% TB win vs market 42.4% (+11.4pp edge); omega ML TB -231
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Bayesian models + MC (away covers 0pts 48.5%) project 60%+ cover rate on +1.5 vs market
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 7.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over 7.5 vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.5 + omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays ML +120: Bayesian -13.6% edge (52% model vs 39% market), +14.8 EV despite extreme whales on home
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