MLS
New England Revolution
Revolution
St. Louis CITY SC
SC
Player Props Engine
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St. Louis CITY SC
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
New England Revolution @ St. Louis CITY SC
+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
New England Revolution +0.5
62%
TOSS-UP
"NE +270 dog (48% our prob vs 27% implied, +3.2 EV) as unbeaten road side vs winless STL, early MLS variance play"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
48%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-2.0%
Line Movement
Open
No open line provided
Current
STL -0.5 (-125 / -110), ML -120 / +270, Total 2.5
Movement
No movement data
Negative EV on home ML; away dog offers +3.2 EV at +270
FULL ANALYSIS
St. Louis -120 home fave despite 0-1-3 start and zero goals in leaders; NE 1-0-2 unbeaten in reg with +270 dog value (our 48% vs 27% implied). Early MLS dogs +0.5 53% hist. edge, under 2.5 fits low-output openers. All toss-ups given N=0 model data.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
St. Louis CITY SC -120
- Away +265 implies 27.4% upset chance but New England's 1-0-2 form shows no road dominance (25% win rate)
SPREAD PICK
●
66%
St. Louis CITY SC
- New England 1-0-2 road winless in draws/losses while St
- Louis home venue untested but market assigns -0.5 value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
- Both teams <1 goal/game pace early (STL 0-1-3, NE 1-0-2); MLS early totals regress low without pace data
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
St. Louis -0.5 (-125) as market respects home edge vs New England's road draw-heavy 1-0-2 start, +1.2 EV
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