Home › NHL › Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild
NHL
Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars
Stars
2 - 5
Final
Minnesota Wild
Wild
Minnesota Wild
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars 1.5
"MIN injury edge +12.6% in even matchup, 65% model over 5.5 total (+24 EV) despite DAL whales"
EV / $100
+28.5
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Wild None
55%
TOTAL over 5.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +122.0
Total
15.5
Edge: +10.0
Win Prob
44.5%
ML
125 / -125

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Dallas Stars

Minnesota Wild

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -120 / 108 -
Value Line - -129 / 100 -
Sharp Action Best Line -0.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (212) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 5.5 (-120)
De-Vigged Fair Value 232 / -232 -114 / 114 O/U -113 / 113
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Dallas Stars

A
Arttu Hyry
(RW) out — Hyry (lower body) will not be in action versus the Wild in Game 6 on Thursday, Mike Morreale of NHL.com reports.
Out
N
Nils Lundkvist
(D) out — out
Out
R
Roope Hintz
(C) out — Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Tuesday that Hintz (lower body) has been ruled out for Thursday's Game 6 against the Wild, and he's unlikely to play in a potential Game 7, Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Out
N
Nathan Bastian
(RW) out — Bastian (hand) will travel with the team in order to start skating, but won't be available until the next round, at the earliest, Robert Tiffin of D Magazine reports.
Out

Minnesota Wild

J
Jonas Brodin
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Charlie Stramel
(C) out — Stramel signed a three-year, entry-level contract extension with the Wild on Monday.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Dallas Stars
Stars
2
-
Minnesota Wild
Wild
5
Dallas Stars 1.5
55% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild

+28.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas Stars 55% Lean
"MIN injury edge +12.6% in even matchup, 65% model over 5.5 total (+24 EV) despite DAL whales"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.3%
Line Movement
Current Puck Line MIN -1.5 (-122), DAL +1.5 (+210); ML MIN -122 / DAL +102; Total 5.5
Movement No significant movement
Injury advantage: Home (+12.6% net from DAL outs) No rest/travel flags
Slight +EV on home ML; massive +24% EV on over 5.5 but totals historically unprofitable (48.7% WR)
FULL ANALYSIS
Dallas hit harder by injuries (-18.9% lambda vs MIN -6.3%), giving home net +12.6% edge in even Omega 0-0 spread matchup. Bayesian fuses to 55.3% MIN ML but extreme $138k whale vol + PM on DAL caps conviction at lean. Total posterior crushes 65% over 5.5 (MC 13.2 pts) but totals 48.7% historical WR demands caution.
SHARP MONEY
9.1% sharp edge on spread home; ML weak; +30% EV on home spread vs retail
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Dallas Stars 1.5
+28.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Wild None
+0.7 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 5.5
+24.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Minnesota Wild -122
  • Bayesian posterior 55.3% home win (edge +0.3pp over market); injury net +12.6% home
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Dallas Stars 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market MIN -1.5 implies DAL +1.5 covers 50%+; MC margin +0.4 with high edge confidence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 5.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over (edge +15.2pp); MC projects 13.2 total, Omega 15.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dallas +1.5 +29.2% EV (sharp 20.7% div + Omega 1.5pt edge + injury net +6.3%) vs juiced home
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