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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +43.8% EV ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
"Brewers-Diamondbacks over 9.0: Bayesian edge +15.2pp, Omega projects 22.5 runs, sharp money on Brewers spread but total over offers best value at 60% confidence."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
58%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2317537 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (86% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 390 trades Kalshi: 151 trades Largest: $488000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
30.9%
ML
223 / -223

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 103 / -123 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 107 / -118 -
Value Line - 102 / -127 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-360) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-152) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value -143 / 143 112 / -112 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) out — Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters that Woodruff was diagnosed with an inflamed labrum in his right shoulder that he suffered during Saturday's start against the Diamondbacks and will be placed on the injured list, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
Out
B
Brian Fitzpatrick
(RP) 60-day IL — Fitzpatrick had Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Logan Henderson
(SP) 15-day IL — Henderson (back) will be activated from the IL to make his next start for the Brewers, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Kuhnel
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Kuhnel on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 3, due to a right shoulder injury.
15-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate Friday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodriguez
(RP) 15-day IL — Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate.
15-Day-IL
D
DL Hall
(RP) 15-day IL — Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Coleman Crow
(SP) 15-day IL — Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) 10-day IL — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 60-day IL — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

J
James McCann
(C) 10-day IL — McCann (quadriceps) will play Saturday and Sunday for Triple-A Reno and could then rejoin the Diamondbacks, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 10-day IL — Manager Torey Lovullo said June 20 that Lawlar will receive further imaging on his strained right hamstring during the All-Star break to gauge his healing, Steve Gilbert MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) is expected to be re-evaluated during the first or second week of July, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Soroka
(SP) 15-day IL — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryne Nelson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-360)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Brandon Woodruff Out
Brian Fitzpatrick 60-Day-IL
James McCann 10-Day-IL
Jordan Lawlar 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 55% Lean
"Brewers-Diamondbacks over 9.0: Bayesian edge +15.2pp, Omega projects 22.5 runs, sharp money on Brewers spread but total over offers best value at 60% confidence."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Open Not available
Current Total: 9.0, Spread: Home +1.5, Moneyline: Home +104 / Away -125
Movement No significant movement detected
Strong positive EV on over 9.0, driven by model's high scoring projection.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion model points to significant value on the over 9.0, with a 65.2% posterior probability vs market 50%. The Omega Poisson model projects a combined 22.5 runs, far exceeding the market total. Despite data quality concerns (missing pitchers, lineups), the edge is substantial. Sharp money favors the Brewers on the spread, but the total over remains the strongest play. Approach with caution given historical total underperformance.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money favors away (Brewers) on the spread with 18.1% edge and strong signal; ML sharp signal is weak. Overall sharp money leans away side.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
+4.4 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.5 EV 60% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Milwaukee Brewers -125
  • Bayesian fusion gives 58.0% win probability vs market 51.0%, +7.0pp edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
  • Bayesian fusion shows 53.9% cover probability vs market 50%, small edge on home spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 65.2% for over 9.0 vs market 50%, +15.2pp edge; Poisson model also projects high scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Arizona spread +2.2 with 19.1% sharp divergence and 11.6% EV — books shading Brewers, sharp money crushing D-backs
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