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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.6% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 0.0
"Rays +185 ML crushed by extreme whales ($174k inst'l) + 48% model prob (EV +36.8) vs 35% implied; MC 71% under 24"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
66%
TOTAL under 24.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$279228 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (86% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 152 trades Kalshi: 22 trades Largest: $14860
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
35.1%
ML
185 / -185

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Cincinnati Reds

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -116 / 107 -
Value Line - -122 / -103 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (340) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (178) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 190 / -190 -112 / 112 O/U -103 / 103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

J
Jose Trevino
(C) 10-day IL — Trevino (back) caught two simulated innings and hit in the batting cages Friday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo (blister) threw 31 pitches across two simulated innings of batting practice Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) threw a bullpen session Thursday that went well and he is scheduled for another one Sunday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds placed Greene (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

Tampa Bay Rays

J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) is playing catch from 90 feet, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 15-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Uceta will be shut down for 2-to-3 weeks after being diagnosed with a right shoulder strain, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Pepiot's injured right hip felt "unstable" while the pitcher played catch Monday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays signed Grove to a major-league contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder surgery.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert earned the save in Sunday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, allowing two earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out one over one inning of relief.
15-Day-IL
G
Garrett Cleavinger
(RP) 15-day IL — Cleavinger (calf) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Sunday, walking three and giving up a three-run home run in one-third of an inning.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Lux (shoulder) rolled his left ankle during an at-bat in a rehab game Saturday with Triple-A Durham, but the injury isn't "too severe," Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (340)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Jose Trevino 10-Day-IL
Nick Lodolo 15-Day-IL
Joe Boyle 15-Day-IL
Edwin Uceta 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 58% Lean Calibrated
"Rays +185 ML crushed by extreme whales ($174k inst'l) + 48% model prob (EV +36.8) vs 35% implied; MC 71% under 24"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Rays +0.0 -110 / Reds -0.0 -110 (omega_model), Total: 24.0 -110 (omega_model), ML: Rays +185 / Reds -185 (omega_model)
Movement N/A
Strong EV on Rays ML +185 (48% model prob vs 35.1% implied breakeven)
Model: 51.4% win rate | n=580 — N=580 MLB; totals losing across tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega pick'em with MC slight Reds edge (47.6% cover) but whales dump $174k extreme vol on Rays +185 (our 48% prob >>35% implied). Pred markets 54% Rays win confirms vs omega line. MC 70.6% under 24 total strongest quant signal despite totals weak hist.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $174k (88% conf, 20 wallets, institutional tier) on Rays
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 0.0
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+36.8 EV 66% 1.0u
TOTAL under 24.0
+34.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Tampa Bay Rays 185
  • Whales extreme on Rays +185 ($174k vol) with our 48% win prob vs 35.1% implied breakeven
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Cincinnati Reds 0.0
  • MC sims 47.6% Rays cover +0.0 but Bayesian posterior edges Reds 52% cover prob in pick'em
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC 10k sims 70.6% under 24.0 total (proj 10.4-10.7 score)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays +185 ML: MC/Bayesian upgrade to 48% win prob (+37 EV) + extreme $174k whales despite omega pricing dogs
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