Moneyline: Nashville SC (-225)
WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T20:40:58.610189 UTC
No edge — -225 breakeven (69.2%) exceeds our 63.5% model probability; mandatory ML slot filled as explicit PASS
MLS
Red Bull New York
York
2
-
3
Final
Nashville SC
SC
Weather Impact
Nashville: Light rain | 54°F | Wind 7 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Light rain): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreRed Bull New York
Nashville SC
Get Daily Picks
DDN SI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.
You're in!
Already subscribed!
Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Spread: Nashville SC -1.5 (+105)
LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T18:09:57.556180 UTC
Nashville's dominant home profile (21-8-3 overall vs RBNY's 11-6-15 travel-worn road log) at plus-money (-1.5 implies ~48.8%, model ~52.5%) gives thin positive EV on the handicap
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T18:09:57.602174 UTC
Model projection only — Forsberg is NYRB's clear high-usage creator on this roster and should lead the side's on-target work as an away underdog with negative game script
Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS
Red Bull New York @ Nashville SC
+-11.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Nashville SC
50%
Lean
"Nashville -1.5 at +105 (market implies 48.8%, model ~52.5%) and under 3.5 in the rain — skip the -225 ML, breakeven 69.2% kills it"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
64%
Book Implied
69%
Edge
-5.7%
Line Movement
Current
Nashville -1.5 (+105 home spread), ML -225; Away +1.5 (-145), ML +450; Total 3.5
Movement
No movement data provided
Light rain forecast: +18% under bias per precipitation model
ML is a pass (juiced past -250 rule, breakeven 69.2% vs 63.5% model). The +105 spread price on -1.5 implies 48.8%; model puts Nashville -1.5.cover at ~52-53%, giving thin positive EV on the spread side
FULL ANALYSIS
Nashville's 21-8-3 record vs RBNY's 11-6-15 makes the home side the clear lean, but -225 is mathematically dead — 69.2% breakeven vs our 63.5% read means the ML loses $11.80 per $100. The +105 spread on -1.5 is where the number lives, and light rain at GEODIS Park pushes the total under 3.5 (projected ~3.2 xG combined). Both plays are 0.5u LEAN-tier only; no sport-specific models or sharp money data confirm the read.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
50%
Nashville SC -225
- No edge — -225 breakeven (69.2%) exceeds our 63.5% model probability; mandatory ML slot filled as explicit PASS
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Nashville SC -1.5
- Nashville's dominant home profile (21-8-3 overall vs RBNY's 11-6-15 travel-worn road log) at plus-money (-1.5 implies ~48.8%, model ~52.5%) gives thin positive EV on the handicap
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 3.5
- Light rain (under bias +18% per precipitation model) plus Nashville's home defensive profile at GEODIS Park; model projects ~3.1-3.3 expected goals vs 3.5 line
About This Analysis
DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Skip juiced Nashville -210 — the edge is -1.5 at +115 (49.5% vs 46.5% implied, ~$6.40 EV) plus a rain-tilted under 3.5 at -110.
Partner Spotlight
Want to reach bettors who use data?
partnerships@degendailynews.com21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700