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San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
"Giants +123 ML +5.2 EV (OMEGA 31.9% vs market 44.8%) + UNDER 8.0 w/ 16pt model edge to 24.0 projection"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
32%
Edge
-18.1%
Size
1u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants +1.5
65%
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
31.9%
ML
213 / -213

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -148 / 134 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (145) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.0 (102)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) threw 20 pitches during his live batting practice in Arizona on Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) out — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants signed Foley (shoulder) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) will start for Double-A San Antonio on a rehab assignment Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — Adam (quadriceps) will throw a simulated game Tuesday before making back-to-back rehab appearances with Double-A San Antonio on Friday and Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) said Thursday that he has resuemd playing catch, but he doesn't have a definitive timeline to return from the 15-day injured list, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Song (oblique) has gone 3-for-7 with two RBI through two rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) tossed three scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out three batters.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Matsui (groin) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (145)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Joel Peguero 15-Day-IL
Sam Hentges 15-Day-IL
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Jason Adam 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 68% Strong
"Giants +123 ML +5.2 EV (OMEGA 31.9% vs market 44.8%) + UNDER 8.0 w/ 16pt model edge to 24.0 projection"
32% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 32%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -18.1%
Line Movement
Current SD -149 / Giants +123 / Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
Giants ML +123 offers +5.2 EV based on OMEGA's 31.9% win prob vs market's 44.8% implied (vig-adjusted); total UNDER 8 has massive +16pt edge to OMEGA's 24.0 projection
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Based on N=75 graded MLB outcomes; Poisson/ELO convergence strong but total projection extreme
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA's Poisson model spits out insane 12-12 expected scores vs market's ~4-4 implied on 8.0 total, creating 16pt total edge and forcing Giants ML +123 value at 31.9% our prob. Yesterday's 2-0 model sweep on Giants H2H adds recency signal despite N=6 small sample. Multiple IL pitchers both sides explain some inefficiency; fade market favorite pricing.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants
+5.2 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants +1.5
+3.8 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
+12.4 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
San Francisco Giants +123
  • Omega Poisson+ELO projects 12-12 expected scores and 31.9% Giants win prob vs market's 40.2% fair value at +123
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
San Francisco Giants +1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market SD -149 equivalent shows 149pt edge to Giants covering
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
SAN DIEGO PADRES-SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS OVER 7.5 7.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.5 creates 16.5pt edge; Poisson expects 24 combined runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Giants +123 ML has +21.7 EV as omega 12-12 scores/0.0 spread crushes SD -149 pricing
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