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Sevilla
Sevilla
Sevilla
Osasuna
Osasuna
Osasuna
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Sevilla Sevilla 0.5
"Sevilla ML +290 vs Kalshi 51.5% away (+25.9% edge); prediction market crushes inefficient retail line"
EV / $100
+4.4
Win Prob
42%
Edge
-8.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Sevilla None
64%
TOTAL under 2.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Sevilla

Osasuna

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
0.3
Moneyline
OSA -105 / SEV 105
Win Probability
51% - 49%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Sevilla @ Osasuna
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Sevilla @ Osasuna

+4.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Sevilla 60% Lean Raw
"Sevilla ML +290 vs Kalshi 51.5% away (+25.9% edge); prediction market crushes inefficient retail line"
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -8.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Osasuna -0.5 (-110)/Sevilla +0.5 (-125); ML: Osasuna -100/Sevilla +290; Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected.
No edge on home ML (-100); +28.7 EV on Sevilla ML (+290) with our 33% away win prob vs 25.6% implied.
FULL ANALYSIS
DK ML has Sevilla +290 (26% implied) despite Kalshi pricing 51.5% away win prob, creating 25%+ edge on Sevilla ML and +4.4 EV on +0.5 spread. No injuries/situational edges but PM divergence is Tier 2 contrarian confluence vs retail shade. Poor data (25% quality) and N=0 calibration cap at Sharp Lean.
SHARP MONEY
Kalshi away win prob 51.5% vs DK-implied 25.6% (>20% divergence); strong contrarian signal favoring Sevilla.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Sevilla 0.5
+4.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Sevilla None
+28.7 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Sevilla 290
  • 33% our away win prob vs 25.6% book implied (+7.4% edge); Kalshi at 51.5% confirms retail inefficiency
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Sevilla 0.5
  • Our 58% cover prob (away win + draw) vs -125 breakeven 55.6%; boosted by Kalshi 51.5% away win prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 2.5
  • LaLiga avg 2.6 goals but model projects 2.3 total in even matchup with no pace data
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Osasuna +105 ML +6.6 EV as Kalshi 53% Sevilla win vs books' 73% overjuice
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