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Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
3 - 5
Final
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 0.0
"Athletics +218 ML +20.4 EV vs 46.8% MC win prob; market overreacts to NYY record ignoring ace/SS injuries"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
62%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +271.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
39.3%
ML
155 / -155

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Athletics

New York Yankees

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Athletics

No injuries reported

New York Yankees

A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Volpe (shoulder) will "potentially" begin a rehab assignment next week, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) experienced "some soreness" following his workout Saturday, but manager Aaron Boone said that the soreness is "to be expected," Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) tossed one simulated inning of live batting practice Wednesday, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to begin throwing bullpens before the end of March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Athletics
Athletics
3
-
New York Yankees
Yankees
5
Athletics 0.0
58% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ New York Yankees

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 58% Lean
"Athletics +218 ML +20.4 EV vs 46.8% MC win prob; market overreacts to NYY record ignoring ace/SS injuries"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.2%
Line Movement
Current NYY -271 / O/U 8.0
Movement No movement data
Athletics ML +218 offers massive +20.4 EV vs our 46.8% win prob (breakeven 31.9%)
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — MLB 172-150 (53.4%) N=322; lean moneylines profitable but overconfident
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega model sees dead even matchup (0.0 spread, 46.8% NYY win) vs -271 market juice despite Yankees missing Cole/Rodon/Volpe; MC confirms 23.9 total mean crushes 8.0 line. Athletics +218 ML screams value with +20.4 EV. Data quality degraded caps confidence but edge obvious.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 0.0
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+20.4 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL over 8.0
+4.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Athletics 155
  • Omega ML shows Athletics +155 (39.3% prob) vs ELO 30.3% implied underdog value
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York Yankees -0.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO projects Yankees +5.8 run edge from 1609 rating vs Athletics 1464
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Omega total 24.0 projects absurd 12-12 scoring; realistic MLB early totals cap ~8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees ELO +5.8 edge vs Omega even spread, Athletics +155 ML value with Nyy injuries (Cole/Rodon out); fade 24 total projection
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