Home › NBA › Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
Hornets
102 - 113
Final
Boston Celtics
Celtics
Boston Celtics
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Charlotte Hornets Charlotte Hornets 4.5
"Hornets +4.5 (1.5pt OMEGA edge) + under 221.5 (18.5pt model crush); sharp RLM confirms"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Celtics None
57%
TOTAL under 221.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
-3.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
203.0
Edge: -18.5
Win Prob
53.7%
ML
-116 / 116

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Charlotte Hornets

Boston Celtics

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Charlotte Hornets

C
Coby White
(G) day-to-day — White (groin) is out for Tuesday's game in Boston.
Day-To-Day
P
PJ Hall
(C) out — Hall (ankle) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.
Out

Boston Celtics

N
Neemias Queta
(C) day-to-day — Queta (toe) is questionable for Thursday's game against the Knicks.
Day-To-Day
S
Sam Hauser
(F) day-to-day — Hauser is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Knicks due to low back spasms.
Day-To-Day
D
Derrick White
(G) day-to-day — White (knee) is questionable for Thursday's game against the Knicks.
Day-To-Day
J
Jaylen Brown
(G) day-to-day — Brown is questionable for Thursday's game against the Knicks due to left Achilles tendinitis.
Day-To-Day
Box Score
FINAL
Charlotte Hornets
Hornets
102
-
Boston Celtics
Celtics
113
Charlotte Hornets 4.5
60% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Charlotte Hornets 60% Lean
"Hornets +4.5 (1.5pt OMEGA edge) + under 221.5 (18.5pt model crush); sharp RLM confirms"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.5%
Line Movement
Current BOS -4.5 / 221.5 / BOS -205
Movement No open line data; market juiced to -4.5 from OMEGA -3.0
-205 requires 67.2% win rate to break even; OMEGA MC at 56.5% = negative EV on home ML
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=397 — NBA 195-202 (49.1% N=397); reduce 3pts for degraded data; ML profitable in leans
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA -3.0 spread vs market -4.5 with MC home cover just 49.3%; sharp RLM favors Hornets +4.5. Massive total edge: model 203.0 vs 221.5 as Poisson/ELO projects 103-100. Charlotte injuries minor; Boston home strong but juice kills ML value (-205 needs 67%).
SHARP MONEY
RLM on spread toward away (sharp side); weak sharp edge on ML/spread away but strong 16.9% over divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Charlotte Hornets 4.5
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Celtics None
-1.2 EV 57%
TOTAL under 221.5
+3.8 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Boston Celtics -116
  • MC 55.6% home win exceeds -116 breakeven (53.7%) by 1.9%; profitable ML tier calibration
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Boston Celtics -3.0
  • MC sims show Boston covers -3.0 in 49.2% of 10k trials despite 3.1pt avg margin (MEDIUM edge conf)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 203.0
  • MC under hits 49.4% on 203 total matching 203.1 expected (losing total calibration across tiers)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Boston ML -116 (+4.8 EV): MC 55.6% win > 53.7% breakeven, profitable ML tier despite poor data
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