MLS
Inter Miami CF
CF
Toronto FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$304166 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (84% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 116 trades
Kalshi: 158 trades
Largest: $6874
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
41.1%
ML
143 / -143
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAInter Miami CF
Toronto FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-1.2
Moneyline
TOR 119
/
INT -119
Win Probability
46%
-
54%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Inter Miami CF @ Toronto FC
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Toronto FC
54%
Lean
"Toronto +230 (36% model vs 30% implied, +20 EV) + over 3.5 (64% vs 50%, omega 7.5 total), whales dump $297k extreme on home"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
36%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-13.6%
Line Movement
Current
Inter Miami CF -0.5 (-120) / Toronto FC +0.5 (-115), Total 3.5 (-110 both), ML Toronto FC +230 / Inter Miami CF -115
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Massive EV on home ML at +230 (breakeven 30.3%, model 36.4%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion delivers +6.1pp home ML edge (36.4% vs 30.3% implied) at +230 for 20% EV, confirmed by extreme $297k whale steam (84% conviction). Total crushed at 3.5 vs omega 7.5/Dixon ~12.8 (+13.7pp over edge). Spread even per omega/MC (-0.3 margin) vs market -0.5 favors Toronto +0.5 at 54% cover; cool 46F noted but low wind/ high model totals override.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $296,800 (8 profitable wallets, 84% confidence on home)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
36%
Toronto FC 230
- Bayesian posterior 36.4% home win vs market prior 30.3% (+6.1pp edge); omega ML +143 vs market +230 offers superior price
SPREAD PICK
○
54%
Toronto FC 0.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market MIA -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge to home +0.5; MC home cover +0.0 at 38.4% implies ~54% for +0.5 incl draws
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
59%
OVER 3.5
- Bayesian over 3.5 posterior 63.7% vs market 50% (+13.7pp); omega total 7.5 and Dixon-Coles ~12.8 obliterate low market line
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
TOR +0.5 (-115): +6.1pp Bayesian home edge + extreme whales + MC 54.5% cover = +2.8 EV
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