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NHL
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Jackets
Columbus Blue Jackets
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK +6.5% EV
57% Lean
57% Lean
TOTAL
under under 6.5
"Take UNDER 6.5 (0.5u) — sharp money 3.5% toward the under with RLM confirmation; skip Colorado -130 as breakeven (56.5%) outpaces the model's 52.4% posterior."
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+3.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
58%
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -1.5
27.1%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors under side. 3.4% divergence on total with strong signal.
Sharp: under Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$29618 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 12 trades Kalshi: 10 trades Largest: $11853

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Colorado Avalanche

Columbus Blue Jackets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 105 / -125 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 109 / -120 -
Value Line - 114 / -136 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.5 (-240) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-235) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-235) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-122)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (105)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -221 / 221 115 / -115 O/U 111 / -111
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Avalanche

J
Josh Manson
(D) out — Manson (ankle) is expected to miss the next eight weeks, Corey Masisak of The Denver Post reports Friday.
Out
Z
Zachary L'Heureux
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve

Columbus Blue Jackets

No injuries reported
Game Preview
Colorado Avalanche @ Columbus Blue Jackets
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-240)
Total Over 6.0
Key Injuries
Josh Manson Out
Zachary L'Heureux Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Colorado Avalanche (-130) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T14:14:54.108958 UTC

Whale consensus (77%, $29.6K STRONG) and 0.4% sharp edge lean away, but posterior 52.4% falls well short of the 56.5% breakeven at -130 — no betting edge, informational pick only

Spread: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+190) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T17:08:41.250097 UTC

Away cover posterior of 27.1% at +190 yields strongly negative EV (-$21.4/100) — the calibrated edge of +1.4pp does not convert at this payout, so treat as pure anchoring reference, not an actionable spot

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T20:37:10.020685 UTC

Model projection (no book line supplied): Werenski anchors the Jackets' blue line as a top-2 SOG producer; facing Manson-absent Colorado D-corps supports elevated shot volume. Thin evidence only — LEAN tier.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Colorado Avalanche @ Columbus Blue Jackets

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
under 57% Lean
"Take UNDER 6.5 (0.5u) — sharp money 3.5% toward the under with RLM confirmation; skip Colorado -130 as breakeven (56.5%) outpaces the model's 52.4% posterior."
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 48%
Edge +3.3%
Line Movement
Open ML home 110 / away -130
Current ML home 110 / away -130, spread 1.5 (home -230 / away +190), total 6.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
Colorado injury impact -12.6% (Manson Out, L'Heureux IR) shifts lambda toward home
The total UNDER is the only market with a modeled edge: sharp-side signal 3.5% with RLM detections, fair value 52.7% vs 48.5% retail implied — modest positive EV, LEAN tier only
FULL ANALYSIS
Market and model agree on nothing on the side — Bayesian edge is 0.0pp on ML, and -130 breakeven (56.5%) exceeds our 52.4% away posterior, so no ML bet. The total is the play: sharp money 3.5% toward the UNDER with RLM confirmation and Pinnacle fair value 52.7% vs 48.5% retail implied, giving the only positive-EV cell on the board. NHL sport record is paused and losing (-13.9% ROI over 21 picks), so this is capped at 0.5u LEAN, not staged any higher.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 0.4% toward away ML with no RLM (weak), plus $29,618 whale volume on AWAY at 77% consensus (STRONG tier, 9 wallets) — but no line movement (PULSE empty), so edge is stable, not hardening. Whale signals do not override a -130 breakeven of 56.5%.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
TOTAL under 6.5
+2.8 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
-9.5 EV 58%
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -1.5
-21.4 EV 27.1%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Colorado Avalanche -130
  • Whale consensus (77%, $29.6K STRONG) and 0.4% sharp edge lean away, but posterior 52.4% falls well short of the 56.5% breakeven at -130 — no betting edge, informational pick only
SPREAD PICK
○ 27.1%
Colorado Avalanche -1.5
  • Away cover posterior of 27.1% at +190 yields strongly negative EV (-$21.4/100) — the calibrated edge of +1.4pp does not convert at this payout, so treat as pure anchoring reference, not an actionable spot
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 6.5
  • Half the market over-implied at 48.5% vs Market Consensus fair 52.7% under with strong sharp divergence and RLM on the total — fewest weak edges but the only positive-EV cell
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Colorado ML on +7.3pp model edge (62.8% posterior vs 55.5% market) with whale volume confirming — but no book price and NHL paused means PASS until a line appears
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