Home › MLS › Columbus Crew @ Toronto FC
MLS
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
Crew
Toronto FC
FC
Toronto FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
64 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Columbus Crew Columbus Crew -0.5
"Crew talent edge (Rossi/Sallói 4G) vs Toronto 1-1-2, model +4.6% prob edge for +3.7 EV ML"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Columbus Crew
64%
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
66%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Columbus Crew

Toronto FC

AI Pick

VALUE
64
VALUE
Spread
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
Expected Value
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω TOSS_UP 64% "Crew talent edge (Rossi/Sallói 4G) vs Toronto 1-1-2, model +4.6% prob edge for +"

Spread inefficiency with Columbus ML near even but +0.5 at -200; 52% ML translates to 60% cover prob

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Columbus Crew @ Toronto FC

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Columbus Crew -0.5 64% TOSS-UP
"Crew talent edge (Rossi/Sallói 4G) vs Toronto 1-1-2, model +4.6% prob edge for +3.7 EV ML"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current CLB -0.5 (Toronto FC -175 / Columbus Crew +125) | Total 2.5 | ML Toronto FC +175 / Columbus Crew -135
Movement No movement data available
+3.7 EV on Columbus Crew ML at -135
FULL ANALYSIS
Crew 0-2-2 but superior talent (Rossi 2G, Sallói 2G in 4 matches) vs Toronto 1-1-2 mediocrity. Market overreacts to home field at BMO; model sees 62% Crew win prob vs 57% implied (-135). Early MLS unders reliable at 58% with these records. CLV edge on Crew ML +3.7 EV.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Columbus Crew -0.5 -0.5
+2.8 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Columbus Crew
+3.7 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
+2.1 EV 66%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Columbus Crew -150
  • Columbus unbeaten in 4 (0-2-2) vs Toronto winless at home effectively (1-1-2 overall, N/A split); model assigns 52% win prob vs 49% implied
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Columbus Crew
  • Spread inefficiency with Columbus ML near even but +0.5 at -200; 52% ML translates to 60% cover prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
TORONTO FC & COLUMBUS CREW UNDER 2.5
  • Early MLS season unders hit 55% (small N<20); combined leaders show low scoring (4 goals in 16 matches)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Columbus ML -150 (+2.6 EV): 0-2-2 unbeaten vs Toronto's weak home start, 52% model >49% implied
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