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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +52.1% EV EARLY VALUE
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
"Rays +2.2 (+6.1 EV): Omega 0 vs mkt -2.2 + MC 46.8% away cover; model edge ahead of whales"
EV / $100
+6.1
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
62%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$496805 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 218 trades Kalshi: 48 trades Largest: $49400
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
34.2%
ML
192 / -192

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Rays

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -168 / 140 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -161 / 145 -
Value Line - -165 / 132 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (275) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (137) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-120)
De-Vigged Fair Value 146 / -146 -154 / 154 O/U -112 / 112
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta has soreness in the back of his right shoulder following his latest rehab appearance at Triple-A Durham, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Garrett Cleavinger
(RP) 15-day IL — Cleavinger (calf) is scheduled to face hitters in live batting practice Thursday, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot (hip) threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Sunday, Marc Topkin of Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 15-day IL — no
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Lux (shoulder) rolled his left ankle during an at-bat in a rehab game Saturday with Triple-A Durham, but the injury isn't "too severe," Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rays placed Boyle on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Friday, due to a right elbow strain.
15-Day-IL
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) is scheduled to resume running the bases next week, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) threw a live batting practice session Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (275)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Edwin Uceta 15-Day-IL
Garrett Cleavinger 15-Day-IL
Anthony Solometo Day-To-Day
Mike Clevinger Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+6.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 60% Lean Calibrated
"Rays +2.2 (+6.1 EV): Omega 0 vs mkt -2.2 + MC 46.8% away cover; model edge ahead of whales"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current Pirates -2.2 / Rays +2.2 | O/U 8.5 | ML Pirates -143 / Rays +120
Movement No significant movement
+4.2 EV on Rays ML +120; breakeven 45.5%, our 46% exceeds by 0.5%; spread EV +6.1 on Rays +2.2
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in strong tier; reduce all 3 pts missing pitchers/data
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread even vs market Pirates -2.2 shows +2.2 Rays value; MC 46.8% Rays win/away cover beats -143 implied 58.9% home; whales extreme home but models/Bayesian -5.2% edge Rays overrides. Equal injuries, no pitchers hurts but MC proj 21.6 pts crushes 8.5 total (calibrated down). Mixed sharp but early CLV +2 Rays.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp 1.6% Rays, spread 14% Pirates; +EV spread home +47.7% but models contradict
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
+6.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+4.2 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Tampa Bay Rays 120
  • MC away win 46.8% vs implied 45.5% breakeven; exceeds by 1.3%
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 Pirates = +2.2 pts Rays value; MC away cover +0 at 46.8%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.5
  • MC projected 21.6 pts vs 8.5 total; over 73.5% (calibrated down from 90+)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pirates ML +180 model value (62.5% posterior vs 35.7% implied, +$54 EV); MC 66.5% under 24.0
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