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MLB
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Nationals
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.0% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 1.5
"Nats ML +139: +8.9pp Bayesian edge in even MC matchup (46/45), over 7.5 +15.2pp crush"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
55%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$497000 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 178 trades Kalshi: 714 trades Largest: $29970
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +168.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
35.0%
ML
186 / -186

Player Props Engine

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Washington Nationals

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -179 / 147 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -168 / 154 -
Value Line - -175 / 135 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (240) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (124) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-115)
De-Vigged Fair Value 131 / -131 -162 / 162 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Washington Nationals

C
Clayton Beeter
(RP) 15-day IL — Beeter (forearm) had an MRI come back clean and was cleared to resume throwing Tuesday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyler Baum
(DH) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — Gray (elbow) remains shut down from throwing and will undergo additional testing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cole Henry
(RP) 15-day IL — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Ken Waldichuk
(RP) 60-day IL — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out

New York Mets

L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) day-to-day — Robert is out of the lineup Tuesday against the Nationals due to lower-back tightness, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Senga on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to April 27, due to lumbar spine inflammation.
15-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (240)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Clayton Beeter 15-Day-IL
Tyler Baum Day-To-Day
Luis Robert Jr. Day-To-Day
Kodai Senga 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 55% Lean
"Nats ML +139: +8.9pp Bayesian edge in even MC matchup (46/45), over 7.5 +15.2pp crush"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.8%
Line Movement
Current Mets -168 ML / Nationals +139 ML, Total 7.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
+8.9pp calibrated edge on Nats ML exceeds breakeven 41.8%
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion flags +8.9pp edge on Nats ML (+139) vs 62.7% implied on Mets -168, backed by MC 46.1% home win in 10k sims projecting 10-9.9 scores. Total over 7.5 has +15.2pp posterior edge (65.2% our prob) despite totals model 48.7% WR. Whale extreme volume home ($492k) contradicts sharp ML away but volume tier extreme reduces conviction; injuries net +2.3% home but poor quality.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 1.5
+3.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
+10.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Washington Nationals 139
  • Bayesian posterior 46.2% vs market 37.3% implied (+8.9pp edge), exceeds breakeven 41.8%
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Washington Nationals 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market heavy Mets fave, MC away cover 45.3% near pick'em value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp), MC/Omega project ~20 runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets -1.5 +2.8 EV on institutional whales ($250k) + Kalshi consensus despite data gaps
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