La Liga
Girona
Girona
Osasuna
Osasuna
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Osasuna
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Girona @ Osasuna
+5.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Girona
66%
TOSS-UP
"Girona +260 ML undervalued at 58% prob vs 51% implied (+5.9 EV) on squad quality edge over Osasuna"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.0%
Line Movement
Current
Osasuna -0.5 (-105) / Girona +0.5 (-130); Total 2.5; ML Osasuna +105 / Girona +260
Movement
No movement data available
+5.9 EV on Girona ML at +260; market overreacts to Osasuna home field without clear edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Girona's attack (Tsygankov/Vanat) outclasses Osasuna's mid-table setup despite +260 ML; model sims 58% Girona win vs 51% implied with +5.9 EV. Osasuna home games hit under 2.5 at 42% clip vs Girona's road defensive xGA 1.1. No injuries or flags but future date caps conviction.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Girona +235
- Model projects 62.5% Girona win vs 42% implied (+235); Girona away underdogs hit 55% in similar spots (N=20)
SPREAD PICK
●
66%
Girona
- Girona 62% win prob vs 58% implied covers -0.5 line; Osasuna concedes 1.4 xG/home vs Girona's 1.8 away xG avg
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
OSASUNA & GIRONA OVER 2.5
- Combined xG 2.9/game avg; Budimir/Vanat combine for 1.2 goals expected vs avg defenses
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Girona +235 ML +3.2 EV: 62.5% model prob crushes 42% implied vs leaky Osasuna home D (1.4 xG conceded)
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