Home › MLS › San Diego FC @ San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
San Diego FC
San Diego FC
FC
San Jose Earthquakes
Earthquake
San Jose Earthquakes
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Diego FC San Diego FC 0.5
"San Diego ML +190 (25.3 EV) as omega sees 50% vs market 34.5%; total 2.5 vs model 13.0 overreaction"
EV / $100
+12.8
Win Prob
50%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE San Diego FC None
66%
TOTAL over 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

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San Diego FC

San Jose Earthquakes

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
SAN -100 / SAN -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
San Diego FC @ San Jose Earthquakes
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego FC @ San Jose Earthquakes

+12.8 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego FC 64% Sharp Lean
"San Diego ML +190 (25.3 EV) as omega sees 50% vs market 34.5%; total 2.5 vs model 13.0 overreaction"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current SJ -0.5 (115/-160), Total 2.5, ML +125/-190
Movement No movement data
San Diego ML +190 offers +25.3 EV vs omega's 50% win probability (market implies only 34.5%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson projects 6.4-6.4 goals (total 13.0) vs market's absurdly low 2.5, signaling major over value. Spread edge on San Diego +0.5 (omega 0.0 vs -0.5 market) with identical 1500 ELO despite SJ pricing. San Diego ML +190 crushes at 50% model prob (market 34.5%). N=0 calibration demands discipline.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Diego FC 0.5
+12.8 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE San Diego FC None
+25.3 EV 66% 1.5u
TOTAL over 2.5
+8.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
San Diego FC 190
  • Omega win prob 50% vs market-implied 34.5% (breakeven 34.5%, our 50% exceeds by 15.5%)
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
San Diego FC 0.5
  • Omega spread at 0.0 vs market SJ -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge on San Diego +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 2.5
  • Omega total 13.0 (6.4-6.4 expected goals) vs market 2.5 reveals massive overreaction
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
San Diego ML +190 (omega 50% vs mkt 34.5%, +15.8 EV) as model crushes total at 13.0 but sees even matchup
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