Ligue 1
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
Lorient
Lorient
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAStrasbourg
Lorient
Model Lines
MODELSpread
0.4
Moneyline
LOR -105
/
STR 105
Win Probability
51%
-
49%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Strasbourg @ Lorient
+0.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Lorient
55%
Lean
Raw
"Lorient ML -110 (+1.4 EV): 53% home win prob vs 52.4% breakeven on even records"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
53%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+3.0%
Line Movement
Current
Spread: Lorient -0.5 (-115/+100); ML: Lorient -110 / Strasbourg +290; Total: 2.5 (-110 both)
Movement
No significant movement
Marginal edge on Lorient ML after vig removal; spread EV lower due to -115 price
FULL ANALYSIS
Lorient -110 ML offers slim +1.4 EV with 53% model prob vs 52.4% implied, driven by standard ~10% home edge in Ligue 1. No injuries or situational flags; Strasbourg's 12-7-10 road-split neutral. Poor data caps confidence at LEAN; avoid total as historical 48.7% WR.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
56%
Lorient -110
- Breakeven 52.4% but model sees 53% win prob from home edge and Bayesian posterior alignment
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Lorient -0.5
- Lorient home field advantage (~10% implied boost in soccer) in matchup of similar records (Lorient 10-11-9, Strasbourg 12-7-10)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
54%
UNDER 2.5
- Ligue 1 averages ~2.4 goals/game; model projects 2.3 total in low-pace matchup
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Strasbourg +0.5 -145 (+2.1 EV, 58% prob) off 3-1 model vs Strasbourg; ML +230 +5.6 EV at 32% our prob
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