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UEFA Champions League
Lille
Lille
Lille
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
Full Game Analysis
UEFA Champions League
Ω DDN SI PICK
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Lille Lille 0.5
"Lille survive at Aspmyra: +0.5 at +100 is the only plus-EV side (51/50 devig), no slate edge anywhere else on this board."
EV / $100
+2.0
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Lille None
44%
TOTAL over 3.5
55%
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Lille

Bodo/Glimt

DDN SI Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
1.3
Moneyline
BOD -120 / LIL 120
Win Probability
55% - 45%

DDN SI model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Lille @ Bodo/Glimt
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Lille (+310) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T04:38:26.829375 UTC

No wager: +310 implies 24.4% devig, and our traveling-side estimate including altitude and artificial-turf adjustment lands near 24%, leaving zero net edge; this pick is data-fulfillment only.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Lille @ Bodo/Glimt

+2.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Lille 56% Lean
"Lille survive at Aspmyra: +0.5 at +100 is the only plus-EV side (51/50 devig), no slate edge anywhere else on this board."
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.0%
Line Movement
Open Home -130 ML
Current Home -130 ML / Spread -0.5 / Total 3.5
Movement No movement data available
Arctic travel for Lille ( Aspmyra Stadion, far-north Norway) Early-season small sample (3-4 games each, N<20 = low confidence)
Lille +0.5 at +100 is the only side withView a marginal positive EV: our 51% devig cover estimate vs the 50% implied mirrors a near coin-flip market where home-favorite pricing is inflated by venue and situational bias rather than team form (Bodo 1-0-2, Lille 0-0-3 in this sample).
FULL ANALYSIS
Bodo/Glimt are shaded to -140 at Aspmyra for classic venue reasons — 1-0-2 record notwithstanding — while Lille's +0.5/+100 sits as the only plus-EV side at roughly 51/50 devig. The real market tell is the total: 3.5 with a heavy -145 under implies ~47/53 street, but our 50% projection makes the +115 over the marginal value play. Totals remain our worst-underwritten market — 0.5u max on both, LEAN tier, no slate backing.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Lille 0.5
+2.0 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Lille None
-11.4 EV 44%
TOTAL over 3.5
+1.3 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 44%
Lille 310
  • No wager: +310 implies 24.4% devig, and our traveling-side estimate including altitude and artificial-turf adjustment lands near 24%, leaving zero net edge; this pick is data-fulfillment only
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Lille 0.5
  • Lille +0.5 at +100 is priced at a coin flip while Bodo/Glimt's 1-0-2 home sample offers no form-based justification for the -140 road shading; the plus-money zero-spread side carries positive devig EV in an N<20 sample market
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 3.5
  • Market prices 3.5 at -145 under / +115 over, implying a 47% over devig vs our 50% projection — slight plus-money value on goals given Bodo/Glimt's possession-dominant home setup and a two-way bottom-of-table matchup profile
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bodo/Glimt -125 ML at +1.4pp edge is the only positive number here — everything else is juiced vig, PASS-sized 0.5u
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