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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +54.7% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
"PIT ML +109: Bayesian -13.3% edge (56.6% vs 43.3% implied), MC away 48.5% despite whale home steam"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+6.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
60%
TOTAL under 7.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1865506 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (95% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 255 trades Kalshi: 65 trades Largest: $489828
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +131.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
25.2%
ML
297 / -297

Player Props Engine

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -123 / 103 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -119 / 107 -
Value Line - -136 / 108 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (350) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (176) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 191 / -191 -113 / 113 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

B
Braxton Ashcraft
(SP) Bereavement — The Pirates placed Ashcraft (personal) on the bereavement/family medical emergency list Saturday.
Bereavement
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Friday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) threw a live batting practice session Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Milwaukee Brewers

A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn (hand) began hitting on the field Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) yielded four runs on three walks while recording just two outs in his first rehab start with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio (hand) will hit on the field Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is expected to be sidelined until mid- to late-May, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig allowed a hit and struck out one over a scoreless inning to earn the save in Thursday's 5-2 win over the Angels.
15-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (350)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Braxton Ashcraft Bereavement
Jared Triolo 10-Day-IL
Andrew Vaughn 10-Day-IL
Quinn Priester 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 58% Lean Calibrated
"PIT ML +109: Bayesian -13.3% edge (56.6% vs 43.3% implied), MC away 48.5% despite whale home steam"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.6%
Line Movement
Current MIL -1.5 (-131) / PIT +1.5 (+110) | ML: MIL -131 / PIT +109 | Total 7.5 (-110)
Movement No significant movement
+4.8 EV on PIT ML +109 (breakeven 47.8%, our 56.6% > +8.8% threshold)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives PIT 56.6% win prob vs market 43.3% (-13.3% edge) with MC 48.5% PIT win and omega even spread 0.0. Whale extreme home volume contradicts model but sharp ML away moderate confirms partial value. Equal injuries (-8% both) and no pitchers/weather cap edge; degraded data reduces conf.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+4.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 7.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Pittsburgh Pirates 109
  • Bayesian posterior 56.6% PIT win vs market 43.3% implied (+13.3% edge exceeds 5% ML filter)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC home cover 42.9% vs market implying higher Brewers cover rate
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 7.5
  • Totals historically losing (48.7% WR); market 7.5 conservative vs inflated model totals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pirates -2.2: sharp 20% edge + Bayesian 58% cover (6% edge) vs late market move
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