Mixed Martial Arts
Carlos Prates
Prates
Jack Della Maddalena
Maddalena
Whale Activity Detected
$1374537 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (99% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 3 trades
Kalshi: 3215 trades
Largest: $40863
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGACarlos Prates
Jack Della Maddalena
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
JAC -100
/
CAR -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Carlos Prates @ Jack Della Maddalena
+2.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Jack Della Maddalena
55%
Lean
"Jack Della Maddalena ML (-110): +$1.37M extreme whale volume (institutional, 100% consensus) vs 50% prior (+5pp edge)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Current
omega_model: ML Jack Della Maddalena -110 / Carlos Prates -110; Spread Jack Della Maddalena -0.5 (-110); Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
N/A
Marginal +EV at model -110 pricing (breakeven 52.4%) driven by whale consensus vs 50% calibrated prior.
FULL ANALYSIS
No quant models or odds available (24% data quality), anchoring to 50% Bayesian posterior tilted +5pp by extreme $1.37M institutional whale volume (100% home). Jack Della Maddalena edges as striker in likely early finish spot vs Prates. Confidence capped low due to N=0 calibration and missing Poisson/ELO/MC.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($1.37M, institutional tier, 100% consensus from 3 profitable wallets) on home.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Jack Della Maddalena -110
- Extreme $1.37M whale volume (institutional tier, 100% home consensus) creates +2.6pp edge vs model line
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Jack Della Maddalena -0.5
- Institutional whale steam ($1.37M volume) on home fighter exceeds 50% Bayesian prior by 5pp
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Prates/Della Maddalena striker styles project early finish under 2.5 rounds (MMA historical 58% for KO artists)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Pick'em MMA clash, $1.3M institutional whales on Della Maddalena (+3.1 EV ML) + KO styles under 4.5
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