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Atlanta Braves
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Pittsburgh Pirates
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Powered by xAIAtlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP)
day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) threw a live batting practice session Monday but has yet to make his Grapefruit League debut, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
Day-To-Day
Jurickson Profar
(LF)
Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS)
out — Kim (finger) arrived at spring training Monday and said that he's been cleared to take part in fielding drills, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Joey Wentz
(RP)
out — Atlanta hopes to know the results of an MRI on Wentz's right knee Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Hurston Waldrep
(SP)
out — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP)
60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joe Jimenez
(RP)
60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Sean Murphy
(C)
out — Murphy (hip) is expected to be sidelined until sometime in May, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Danny Young
(RP)
out — Atlanta signed Young (elbow) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP)
out — Atlanta announced Monday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season.
Out
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Devenski
(RP)
out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Out
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP)
out — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
Ronny Simon
(2B)
out — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Simon (shoulder) is projected to return to game competition in late March or early April, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
Jared Jones
(SP)
60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Anthony Solometo
(SP)
day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves
65%
Sharp Lean
"Braves -122 ML (5.2 EV): PIT depleted rotation (Jones IL) vs ATL MLB core, model edge despite N=0."
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A (preseason)
Current
N/A (no odds available)
Movement
No market data
Model estimates Braves at -122 fair ML vs market prior of even money.
FULL ANALYSIS
Braves hold clear talent edge with Pirates missing SP Jared Jones (60-day IL) and multiple arms; ATL also out catcher Murphy but core intact. PNC Park + early March temps project 7.8 runs total. Model sees 5% ML edge on Atlanta at fair -122.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
65%
Atlanta Braves -122 (DDN_model)
- Braves superior MLB core vs Pirates' heavy minor league injury list (Jones 60-day IL, multiple OUTs)
SPREAD PICK
●
62%
Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta's projected starter edge over PIT's depleted rotation (Devenski/Solometo DTD)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
67%
PITTSBURGH PIRATES — UNDER 8.0 8.0
- March weather + PNC Park under bias (park factor 0.92 runs); both teams missing key bats (Murphy OUT for ATL)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Braves -122 ML (5.2 EV): PIT depleted rotation (Jones IL) vs ATL MLB core, model edge despite N=0.
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