Home › MLS › Red Bull New York @ CF Montréal
MLS
Red Bull New York
Red Bull New York
York
CF Montréal
Montréal
CF Montréal
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
54% Lean
54% Lean
SPREAD
Red Bull New York Red Bull New York 0.5
"NYRB ML -155: $503K extreme whale volume (91% conf), model 66% prob = +8.6 EV"
EV / $100
-4.7
Win Prob
66%
Edge
+16.0%
Size
0u
MONEYLINE Red Bull New York None
66%
TOTAL under 3.5
52%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$521860 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 153 trades Largest: $114719

Player Props Engine

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Red Bull New York

CF Montréal

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-3.0
Moneyline
CF 153 / RED -153
Win Probability
40% - 60%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

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Red Bull New York @ CF Montréal
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Red Bull New York @ CF Montréal

+-4.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Red Bull New York 54% Lean Raw
"NYRB ML -155: $503K extreme whale volume (91% conf), model 66% prob = +8.6 EV"
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +16.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: MTL -0.5 (+140 MTL / -195 NY +0.5) | Total: 3.5 (-110/-110) | ML: MTL +145 / NY -155
Movement No significant line movement detected
+EV on NY ML driven by whale signal exceeding breakeven (60.8%) by 5.2%
FULL ANALYSIS
Extreme whale steam ($503k vol, institutional, 91% conviction from 31 profitable wallets) targets Red Bull New York ML (-155), where our 66% prob beats 60.8% breakeven for +8.6 EV. Spread juice (-195 on NY +0.5) and total (no pace data, historical 48.7% WR) lack edge amid 25% data quality. Early MLS lines inefficient but N=0 calibration demands caution.
SHARP MONEY
EXTREME whale volume ($503k institutional tier) from 31 profitable wallets, 91% confidence on Red Bull New York
Recommended Sizing
0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Red Bull New York 0.5
-4.7 EV 54% 0u
MONEYLINE Red Bull New York None
+8.6 EV 66% 1.0u
TOTAL under 3.5
+1.8 EV 52% 0u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Red Bull New York -155
  • Extreme institutional whale action ($503k vol, 91% conviction) pushes our 66% prob over 60.8% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Red Bull New York 0.5
  • Whale signal supports NY cover (win + draw = 63%) but -195 juice destroys EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
UNDER 3.5
  • MLS avg 2.8 gpg < 3.5 total but historical model 48.7% WR on totals kills edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
NYRB ML -160 +5.6 EV on $503k EXTREME whale steam (91% conf) crushing pick'em vig
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