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Pittsburgh Penguins

Colorado Avalanche

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada - -220 / 180 ↑ -
Bovada -2.5 (175) - -
Bovada - - Over 23.5 (100)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Penguins

Samuel Girard (D) out — out
Out
Blake Lizotte (C) out — out
Out
Kevin Hayes (RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
Ryan Graves (D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
Filip Hallander (C) Injured Reserve — Hallander (leg) was recalled from his conditioning stint with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Friday, Seth Rorabaugh of Tribune-Review Sports reports.
Injured Reserve
Sidney Crosby (C) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
Caleb Jones (D) Injured Reserve — Jones (lower body) was suspended by the NHL on Wednesday for violating the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.
Injured Reserve
Peyton Kettles (D) out — out
Out

Colorado Avalanche

Ross Colton (C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
Logan O'Connor (RW) Injured Reserve — Head coach Jared Bednar said Sunday that O'Connor (hip) is progressing in his recovery and could return to game action soon, Aarif Deen of Colorado Hockey Now reports.
Injured Reserve
Gabriel Landeskog (LW) out — Landeskog (lower body) is week-to-week and won't play against Minnesota on Sunday.
Out
Artturi Lehkonen (LW) out — Lehkonen (upper body) is considered week-to-week, Evan Rawal of the Denver Gazette reports.
Out

AI Pick

STRONG
73
STRONG
Moneyline
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche ML -218
Expected Value
+4.72 EV
per $100 wagered

Altitude + home dominance (23-5-4 at Ball Arena)

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Colorado Avalanche

+4.72 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 73% LEAN
"Fade PIT at Denver altitude (-1.3 pts/road game) + COL 23-5-4 home: +4.72 EV COL ML"
MARKET
Open: COL -218 (assumed, no movement data)
Current: COL -218 / PIT +180 / Spread COL -1.5 (+105/-125) / Total 6.5
Move: No movement detected
Our prob: 73.0%
SITUATIONAL FLAGS
ALTITUDE FACTOR (Denver): Visiting teams average -1.3 pts/game
COL elite home (23-5-4)
PIT mediocre road (17-9-7)
EV BREAKDOWN
Our win probability: 73.0%
EV per $100: $4.72
+4.72 EV on COL ML: (0.73 * 45.87) - (0.27 * 100) = +4.72 per $100
0.5u recommended

AI Game Analysis

Colorado's Ball Arena remains a house of horrors for road teams (-1.3 pts/game avg), PIT's 17-9-7 road mark uninspiring amid injuries. MacKinnon (109 pts) feasts at altitude while Penguins scramble without Lizotte/Hayes. 73% model prob vs 68.6% implied yields +4.72 EV; line stability suggests no sharp fade.
MONEYLINE PICK
● 73%
Colorado Avalanche -218
  • Altitude + home dominance (23-5-4 at Ball Arena)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Fade PIT at Denver altitude (-1.3 pts/road game) + COL 23-5-4 home: +4.72 EV COL ML