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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +38.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"Model 22.5 total vs 9.0 market = +15.2pp over edge (65% posterior, +24.5 EV), Yankees juice kills ML/RL"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+14.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
62%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2021558 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 431 trades Kalshi: 1344 trades Largest: $164029
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +181.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
253 / -253

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 139 / -165 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 144 / -160 -
Value Line - 138 / -175 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-260) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-115) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-119)
De-Vigged Fair Value -109 / 109 153 / -153 O/U -111 / 111
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) completed five innings for Double-A Somerset in a rehab outing Sunday, allowing two runs on four hits and one walk while striking out eight batters.
15-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has yet to resume running, but he's been doing some hitting, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Dominguez will miss "a few weeks" after an MRI revealed a low-grade AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day

Baltimore Orioles

T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Rogers (illness) said that he threw a "simulated bullpen" session Saturday and is optimistic that he'll be able to return from the 15-day injured list to make a start during the Orioles' three-game series versus the Yankees that begins Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) will play at third base in a rehab game with Double-A Chesapeake on Sunday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg will have a follow-up appointment for his right elbow sprain Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Chesapeake on Saturday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cade Povich
(SP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-260)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Trevor Rogers 15-Day-IL
Jackson Holliday 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 60% Lean
"Model 22.5 total vs 9.0 market = +15.2pp over edge (65% posterior, +24.5 EV), Yankees juice kills ML/RL"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.3%
Line Movement
Current RL: NYY -1.5 -181 | ML: NYY -181 / BAL +149 | Total: 9.0 (-110 est)
Movement No significant movement
Marginal de-vig edge on NYY ML (+4.4pp) erased by -181 juice; total over shows +24.5 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project 19.5-22.5 runs vs 9.0 market total for +15.2pp over posterior edge (65.2%), EV +24.5 despite totals calibration weakness. Yankees ML/RL juiced at -181 (64.4% breakeven) with bayesian 64.3% prob marginal after vig; sharp away spread divergence 18.1% confirms but whales extreme on BAL reduces. Equal injuries, no pitchers = degraded spot, lean total value.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 18.1% sharp edge on spread away + weak ML away; Pinnacle fair spread away 47.3% vs retail juice
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
-0.2 EV 62%
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
New York Yankees -181
  • Bayesian posterior 64.3% vs de-vig market 59.8% (+4.4pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • +EV analysis flags 37.1% value on away spread at select books vs Pinnacle fair 47.3%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs market 50% (+15.2pp); Omega/MC avg 19.5-22.5 >> 9.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model 22.5 total vs 9.0 market = +15.2pp over edge (65% posterior, +24.5 EV), Yankees juice kills ML/RL
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