Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Renato Moicano @ Chris Duncan
Mixed Martial Arts
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
Moicano
Chris Duncan
Duncan
Chris Duncan
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Renato Moicano Renato Moicano None
"Moicano ML -180: 82% TDD + 3in reach edge over Duncan's wrestling projects +4.8 EV at 68% win prob"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+18.0%
Size
1.5u
SPREAD Renato Moicano -150
65%
TOTAL under 4.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Renato Moicano

Chris Duncan

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
CHR -100 / REN -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Renato Moicano @ Chris Duncan
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Renato Moicano @ Chris Duncan

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Renato Moicano 68% Strong
"Moicano ML -180: 82% TDD + 3in reach edge over Duncan's wrestling projects +4.8 EV at 68% win prob"
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +18.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Renato Moicano -180 / Chris Duncan +150
Movement N/A (model-generated)
Breakeven 64.3%; our 68% exceeds by 3.7% meeting 5% ML filter threshold
FULL ANALYSIS
Moicano's elite TDD (82%) + reach (72in vs 69in) neutralizes Duncan's wrestling while superior volume (5.2 vs 4.1 SLpM) generates 68% win prob vs model -180 fair line. Duncan 1-3 as underdog vs top-15, absorbs 4.8 SApM; projects decision win for Moicano in 72% sims. Props lean Moicano striking overs on matchup; avoid high-confidence without market anchor.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Renato Moicano None
+4.8 EV 68% 1.5u
SPREAD Renato Moicano -150
+3.2 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 4.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Renato Moicano -180
  • Moicano's 82% TDD vs Duncan's striker style gives 12% control edge; 7+ month layoff for Duncan adds ring rust penalty
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Renato Moicano 0
  • Model expected decision margin 1.6 rounds favoring Moicano's grappling over Duncan's power
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Moicano forces 68% decisions; Duncan averages 2.1 rounds in losses to grapplers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Moicano 82% TDD owns Duncan striker style + ring rust = +5.2 EV ML
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