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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +15.0% EV
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants -1.5
"Giants -1.5 at +135: 15% EV via sharp money divergence and Rockies injury-depleted rotation — Coors risk baked into the price, play the spread over juiced ML"
EV / $100
+15.0
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+2.6%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
64%
TOTAL over 11.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 11.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$125199 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 63 trades Largest: $34680

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 133 / -159 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 137 / -152 -
Value Line - 135 / -167 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-180) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-111) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.0 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value -104 / 104 145 / -145 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

W
Willy Adames
(SS) day-to-day — Adames (back) remains out of San Francisco's starting lineup against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Chapman
(3B) 10-day IL — Chapman was diagnosed with an abdominal muscle strain following his removal from Tuesday's game against the Diamondbacks, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Keaton Winn
(RP) 15-day IL — Winn (elbow) completed a 25-pitch bullpen Monday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 60-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) threw 30 pitches during a bullpen session Monday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader (foot) will start his hitting and throwing progressions later this week, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — The Giants placed Susac on the 10-day injured list Friday with a lower-back strain, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) struck out two over a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on Friday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

B
Blas Castano
(RP) 15-day IL — Castano (pectoral) is expected to begin a throwing program next week, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jaden Hill
(RP) 15-day IL — Hill (shoulder) resumed playing catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — Doyle (oblique) was scratched from a rehab appearance with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday due to groin tightness, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Dollander underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow Monday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-180)
Total Over 11.0
Key Injuries
Willy Adames Day-To-Day
Matt Chapman 10-Day-IL
Blas Castano 15-Day-IL
Jaden Hill 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

+15.0 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 67% Sharp Lean
"Giants -1.5 at +135: 15% EV via sharp money divergence and Rockies injury-depleted rotation — Coors risk baked into the price, play the spread over juiced ML"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 61%
Edge +2.6%
Line Movement
Open -150 / +129
Current -156 / +129
Movement Away moneyline shortened slightly from -150 to -156 — slight public lean on Giants, but negligible sharp movement.
Coors Field — highest park factor in MLB: +35% over, +18% HR, inflates total and depresses pitcher value Rockies injury hit heavily: Quintana (60-day) and Castano (15-day) out — rotation depth severely compromised Giants also banged up: Adames day-to-day, Bader out, Susac out — lineup depth takes a hit Home team poor form: Rockies have lost 4 of last 6 at home; bullpen ERA > 5.50 last 14 days No starting pitcher data — high uncertainty on pitching matchup
At -156 odds, breakeven win rate is 60.9%. Our model projects 63.5%, yielding +4.9% EV per $100 wagered. Moderate edge driven by Rockies' depleted rotation and Giants' superior run prevention.
FULL ANALYSIS
The model sees moderate value on San Francisco at Coors Field despite the data degredation. Sharp money (11.7% divergence on spread) and Pinnacle fair value (59.2% away ML) both favor the Giants. Rockies' injury to Quintana/Castano leaves a rotation already shaky, while Giants' pitching staff (Webb, Ray) can handle Coors better. However, missing starter data caps confidence — the Giants -1.5 spread at +135 offers the cleanest 15% EV. Total over 11 is a low-conviction lean based on park factor alone.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp vs Public shows 11.7% divergence on the spread favoring away; Pinnacle fair value (away 59.2%) aligns with consensus; whale volume of $125K on home is contradictory but less predictive in MLB. Strong signal for away side overall.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants -1.5
+15.0 EV 67% 1.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
+4.9 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL over 11.0
+1.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
San Francisco Giants -156
  • Model projects Giants true win probability at 63.5% vs 60.9% implied — 2.6pp edge backed by Rockies injury impact (-6.9% lambda) and Pinnacle fair value (59.2% away)
SPREAD PICK
● 67%
San Francisco Giants -1.5
  • Pinnacle fair value for Giants -1.5 is 48.9% at +135, offering +15.0% EV vs market — sharp money diverging 11.7% toward Giants spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 11.0
  • Coors Field park factor (+35% over, +1.8 runs) historically lifts totals; Rockies injury-depleted pitching and Giants' banged up lineup still project to ~10.5 runs baseline, giving slight edge to over 11
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies +177 has +5.7pp Bayesian edge over Omega line with $90K whale volume — strong value despite data quality degradation.
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