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Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.2% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros 2.2
"Astros +2.2: +6.3pp Bayesian/MC edge vs -2.2 market (Omega even), early +2.2 CLV; Over 9: 65% posterior/19.7 proj total"
EV / $100
+6.3
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
49%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2162417 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 270 trades Kalshi: 3113 trades Largest: $190620
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
36.0%
ML
177 / -177

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -120 / 100 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -115 / 104 -
Value Line - -122 / 100 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (172) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-110)
De-Vigged Fair Value 186 / -186 -109 / 109 O/U -103 / 103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

C
Cody Bolton
(SP) 15-day IL — The Astros could activate Bolton (back) from the 15-day injured list to serve as their 27th man for Thursday's doubleheader versus the Orioles, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) was charged with five runs on six hits and three walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Double-A Corpus Christi on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Pena (hamstring) began taking at-bats in live batting practice Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) began a throwing program Tuesday, playing catching from 75 feet, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday.
10-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw 20 pitches in a live batting practice session Tuesday and said afterward that it was akin to his first live BP of spring training, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL

Baltimore Orioles

T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Rogers (2-3) took the loss Saturday, giving up three runs on four hits and two walks over 1.2 innings as the Orioles were routed 17-1. He struck out two.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz noted Tuesday that he's not sure when Holliday (hand) will be ready to play in games again, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Noda
(1B) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Noda to Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — Enns (foot) threw a clean inning in a rehab outing for Triple-A Norfolk on Friday.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Cody Bolton 15-Day-IL
Tatsuya Imai 15-Day-IL
Trevor Rogers 15-Day-IL
Jackson Holliday 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

+6.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 56% Lean
"Astros +2.2: +6.3pp Bayesian/MC edge vs -2.2 market (Omega even), early +2.2 CLV; Over 9: 65% posterior/19.7 proj total"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Orioles -2.2 / Astros +2.2 | O/U 9.0 | ML Orioles -129 / Astros +109
Movement No significant movement detected
net_injury_advantage_away
Positive EV on Astros +2.2 spread cover from +6.3pp calibrated edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega independent line even at 0.0 spread with 11.2-11.2 expected scores vs market Orioles -2.2, delivering +6.3pp Bayesian edge on Astros cover; MC sims project 9.8-9.9 per team (19.7 total) crushing 9.0 line for +15.2pp over edge. Orioles injuries hit harder (-10.6% lambda adj vs Astros -6.9%), but sharp money (14.1% spread edge) and extreme whale volume home ($1.7M, 86% conf) cap conviction. Very low model agreement reduces scaling.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 14.1% sharp edge on spread favoring Orioles home cover despite public/retail shading
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros 2.2
+6.3 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
+1.8 EV 49%
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 49%
Houston Astros 109
  • Bayesian posterior 48.7% Astros ML vs market 43.7% implied, +5.0pp edge at +109
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Houston Astros 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Astros cover +2.2 vs market 50% implied, +6.3pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over 9.0 vs market 50%, +15.2pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Orioles spread +46.3% EV vs Pinnacle + extreme whales $1.2M (88% home) despite injury hit
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