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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +28.4% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies None
"Phillies spread +2.2 at +295 offers massive +44% EV backed by sharp money and whales; moneyline also positive."
EV / $100
+10.8
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+5.9%
Size
1u
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies 2.2
68%
TOTAL over 10.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 9.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$1139594 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 443 trades Kalshi: 198 trades Largest: $150318

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -179 / 147 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -169 / 152 -
Value Line - 108 / -150 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (190) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (129) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 138 / -138 -161 / 161 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

T
Tyrone Taylor
(CF) 10-day IL — Taylor (hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Lambert
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Christian Scott
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Scott on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right hip impingement.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

T
Trea Turner
(SS) day-to-day — Turner (wrist) will start at shortstop and bat leadoff in Wednesday's game against the Marlins.
Day-To-Day
A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — Garcia will undergo season-ending surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat.
60-Day-IL
L
Liover Peguero
(SS) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) out — Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.
Out
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walling
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carson DeMartini
(SS) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (190)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Tyrone Taylor 10-Day-IL
Francisco Lindor 10-Day-IL
Trea Turner Day-To-Day
Adolis Garcia 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

+10.85 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 65% Sharp Lean
"Phillies spread +2.2 at +295 offers massive +44% EV backed by sharp money and whales; moneyline also positive."
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +5.9%
Line Movement
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Positive EV from prediction market divergence.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money and prediction markets heavily favor Phillies at home. Despite no quantitative model, the +44% EV on the spread and +10.9% EV on the moneyline (using prediction market consensus) represent strong edges. Total is neutral and should be avoided.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money favors home side; 12.6% divergence on spread with strong signal; RLM detected on moneyline.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+10.8 EV 65% 1u
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies 2.2
+50.0 EV 68% 1.5u
TOTAL over 10.0
-4.5 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Philadelphia Phillies -118
  • Prediction markets and whales see home at 61% vs 54.1% implied; +10.9% EV
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Philadelphia Phillies 2.2
  • Bovada offers home spread at +295, fair value 36.4% — +44% EV; sharp money and prediction markets confirm
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 10.0
  • Neutral; no strong edge, over slightly negative EV at implied 52.4% vs fair 50.7%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Data quality is degraded (64%), pitcher data missing—pass on ML and total; the only edge is the anomalous Bovada spread at +295 (+44% EV) but treat with extreme caution due to non-standard line of -2.2.
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