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Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Stars
Dallas Stars
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche -115
"Sharp 12% spread edge COL +35.4 EV +230 Bovada; under 6.5 +12% EV w/ dual injuries slashing scoring"
EV / $100
+35.4
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
67%
TOTAL under 6.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Colorado Avalanche

Dallas Stars

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - -105 / -115 ↑ -
Sharp Action 2.5 (-550) - -
Sharp Action - - Over 2.5 (-170)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Avalanche

C
Cale Makar
(D) out — Makar (upper body) will not be an option for the Avs' next two contests, Evan Rawal of the Denver Gazette reports Friday.
Out
N
Nicolas Roy
(C) out — Roy (upper body) will miss Saturday's game in Dallas and Sunday's match versus St. Louis, per Evan Rawal of the Denver Gazette.
Out

Dallas Stars

T
Tyler Myers
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Sam Steel
(C) out — Steel's (hip) timeline for a return to the lineup has yet to be determined, but he is not expected to suit up in the short term, Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports reports Tuesday.
Out
M
Michael Bunting
(LW) out — Bunting (lower body) isn't expected to be return to the lineup in the near future, per Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports on Tuesday.
Out
N
Nathan Bastian
(RW) out — Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Tuesday that an optimistic outlook for Bastian's (hand) return to the lineup would be within the next 10 days, according to Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports.
Out
R
Roope Hintz
(C) out — Hintz (lower body) will be out for an extended period of time, Brien Rea of Victory+ reports Saturday.
Out
R
Radek Faksa
(C) Injured Reserve — Faksa sustained a lower-body injury while rehabbing his upper-body injury sustained during the Olympics, Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine reports Friday.
Injured Reserve
T
Tyler Seguin
(C) Injured Reserve — Seguin (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign and the entirety of the playoffs, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-550)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Cale Makar Out
Nicolas Roy Out
Tyler Myers Day-To-Day
Sam Steel Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars

+35.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 65% Sharp Lean
"Sharp 12% spread edge COL +35.4 EV +230 Bovada; under 6.5 +12% EV w/ dual injuries slashing scoring"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current COL -115 ML / DAL -105 ML | Spread: COL -115 (DAL +230 / COL -285) | Total: 6.5
Movement No movement data available
Colorado ML +EV at -115 vs 53.5% implied (need 53.5% breakeven); under 6.5 +EV vs sharp fair value (under 48.8% fair)
Model: 42.3% win rate | n=215 — N=215 NHL; recent 7d -39u drag; boost for sharp signals +3pts
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammering COL spread (+12% edge, +35% EV at +230 Bovada) and under 6.5 (+9.9% edge) vs retail juice traps. Both teams gutted—Stars w/o Hintz/Bunting/Steel (depth killers), Avs missing Makar—but MacKinnon's 121 SOG/121 pts carry vs DAL secondary D. Model sees 55% COL ML prob vs 53.5% implied, CLV projects +8% steam to Avs.
SHARP MONEY
12.0% spread sharp edge to COL + 9.9% total sharp edge to under; +35.4% EV on COL spread +230 at Bovada vs fair 30.1%
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -115
+35.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
+4.3 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL under 6.5
+12.2 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Dallas Stars -118
  • 54% model win prob exceeds -118 breakeven (54.1%) despite Hintz out; MacKinnon can't carry depleted Avs alone
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Dallas Stars -0.5
  • Dallas retains depth edge with Robertson/Johnston healthy vs Colorado missing Makar (-15% offense) and Roy
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 5.5
  • Combined injuries (Hintz/Makar out) drop model total to 5.8 from neutral 6.2; NHL totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dallas ML -118 (+2.7 EV): Depth survives Hintz out better than Avs sans Makar; model 54% win prob
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