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Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.6% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
"Phillies ML -143: 18.9% sharp spread div + $860k extreme whales = +3.7 EV vs neutral bayesian"
EV / $100
+4.5
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+11.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
61%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$866185 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 245 trades Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $22642

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Phillies

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 120 / -143 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 124 / -138 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-320) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-134) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 10.0 (170)
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value -127 / 127 131 / -131 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
15-Day-IL
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
suspension
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies placed Backhus on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left elbow inflammation.
15-Day-IL
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

W
Willson Contreras
(1B) day-to-day — Contreras' bruised right hand is sore after being hit by a pitch during Sunday's 4-1 loss to the Rays, but the initial scan of the area come back negative, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 10-day IL — The Red Sox placed Anthony (wrist) on the 10-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Tuesday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox placed Gonzalez (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Danny Coulombe
(RP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Coulombe on the 15-day injured list Monday with cervical spasms.
15-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-320)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Zach Pop 15-Day-IL
Keaton Anthony Day-To-Day
Willson Contreras Day-To-Day
Hobie Harris Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

+4.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 62% Lean
"Phillies ML -143: 18.9% sharp spread div + $860k extreme whales = +3.7 EV vs neutral bayesian"
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +11.0%
Line Movement
Current Phillies -1.5 -143 / Red Sox +1.5; ML Phillies -143 / Red Sox +119; Total 8.0 -110
Movement No significant movement
Marginal +EV on Phillies ML after +9pt Tier 2 boost from sharps/whales vs de-vig market prior
FULL ANALYSIS
Phillies anchor at 54.3% posterior boosted to 61% via 18.9% sharp spread edge + extreme $860k whale volume (31 wallets, institutional tier) on away side. Injuries net even at -8%, no pitchers/weather limits edges but cross-market confirms Phillies directional. Degraded data caps at lean tier despite confluence.
SHARP MONEY
18.9% spread edge + 0.8% ML edge to Phillies; extreme whale volume confirms
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
+4.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+3.7 EV 61% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Philadelphia Phillies -143
  • Tier 2 convergence: extreme whales ($860k vol tier) + sharp divergence boost posterior from 54% to 61%
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
  • Strong 18.9% sharp edge on away spread side per Pinnacle vs retail divergence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • 13.0% sharp edge to over despite cross-market under lean
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies ML 54.5% posterior + $845k extreme whales; MC 77% under 22.5 (high edge)
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