Moneyline: Florida Panthers (-175)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T07:37:23.550148 UTC
None — posterior (63.6%) exactly equals market implied (63.5% at -175); this is a vig-priced side with no value.
NHL
Detroit Red Wings
Wings
Florida Panthers
Panthers
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors under side. 3.9% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: under
Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$108101 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (98% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 10 trades
Kalshi: 211 trades
Largest: $6669
Player Props Engine
Powered by DDN SIDetroit Red Wings
Florida Panthers
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | -180 / 155 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | - | -178 / 156 | - |
| Value Line | - | -190 / 155 | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | -1.5 (145) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | -1.5 (145) ↓ | - | - |
| Value Line | -1.5 (138) ↓ | - | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | - | Over 6.0 (100) |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 6.0 (101) |
| Value Line | - | - | Over 5.5 (-134) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | 157 / -157 | -168 / 168 | O/U 108 / -108 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Detroit Red Wings
A
Albert Johansson
D
Dylan Larkin
M
Mason Appleton
M
Marco Kasper
S
Simon Edvinsson
Florida Panthers
B
Brad Marchand
A
Aleksander Barkov
J
Jacob Markstrom
J
Jonah Gadjovich
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Total: under 5.5 (+108)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T20:37:35.009491 UTC
Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is 51.9% under vs Value Line's +108 — the retail market has not adjusted to the injury cascade (-25% lambda each side, missing Barkov, Marchand, Larkin, Kasper, Markstrom), producing +8.0% EV on the under.
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T19:37:19.813931 UTC
Model projection (no bookmaker lines, no RHYTHM market comparison): with Larkin and Kasper on IR, DeBrincat absorbs top-unit PP and top-6 usage; shot volume is his least game-state-dependent stat
Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS
Detroit Red Wings @ Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers
60%
Lean
"Under 5.5 at +108 vs 51.9% fair value = +8.0% EV — sharp money and RLM both point under with both teams' top-6 decimated by injuries."
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
64%
Book Implied
64%
Edge
0.0%
Line Movement
Open
Florida Panthers -1.5 (no opening data supplied)
Current
Florida Panthers -1.5 (150.0 home / -180.0 away), ML home -175 / away +145, total 5.5 (-134 o / +108 u)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Both dugouts are gutted — Barkov, Marchand and Markstrom out for Florida vs Larkin, Kasper and Edvinsson for Detroit — a symmetric -25% lambda hit that keeps the market's -1.5/5.5 framing intact. The Bayesian fusion confirms zero moneyline edge at -175 (63.6% posterior = 63.6% implied), so the play is the total: Pinnacle fair value is 51.9% under while Kambi hangs +108, and sharp divergence (3.9%) plus RLM both point under. Florida's per-matchup hit rate is 38W-44L and the NHL model is paused, so this is a small-stakes, single-unit situation play.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Florida Panthers -175
- None — posterior (63.6%) exactly equals market implied (63.5% at -175); this is a vig-priced side with no value
SPREAD PICK
○
59%
Detroit Red Wings 1.5
- +1.5 underdog cover posterior is 61.1% vs -180 breakeven of 64.3% — thin negative-priced juice, but Benter-style logic favors the puck line over the No-Vig-priced moneyline: NHL underdog +1.5 historically covers; model shows +0.7pp toward the away side and sharp splits lean away on both ML and spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
62%
UNDER 5.5
- Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is 51.9% under vs Value Line's +108 — the retail market has not adjusted to the injury cascade (-25% lambda each side, missing Barkov, Marchand, Larkin, Kasper, Markstrom), producing +8.0% EV on the under
About This Analysis
DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
No bet: Panthers without Barkov/Marchand/Markstrom vs Wings without Larkin/Kasper — symmetric -25% injury hits, no prices, and NHL is on calibration pause.
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