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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.6% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.5
"Omega 22.5 total & MC 19.8 proj vs 8.5 market (+24.4 EV over 8.5); even spread juices dog +1.5"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+10.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
39%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$674450 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 369 trades Kalshi: 10 trades Largest: $201683
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +186.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
40.5%
ML
147 / -147

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -185 / 153 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -177 / 159 -
Value Line - -200 / 160 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (230) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (119) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 127 / -127 -169 / 169 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) made the second appearance of his rehab assignment with High-A Spokane on Sunday, striking out two over a perfect inning.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — Feltner (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is likely to begin a rehab assignment shortly, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) threw four scoreless innings, allowing three hits and no walks while striking out four in a rehab appearance with Double-A Altoona on Tuesday, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Bart
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jake Mangum
(LF) 10-day IL — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 15-day IL — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.
15-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (230)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
RJ Petit 60-Day-IL
McCade Brown 60-Day-IL
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Joey Bart 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 58% Lean
"Omega 22.5 total & MC 19.8 proj vs 8.5 market (+24.4 EV over 8.5); even spread juices dog +1.5"
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.8%
Line Movement
Current PIT -186 ML / COL +153 ML, Total 8.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
Neg EV on PIT ML (-6.5); marginal neg on COL ML (-1.9); massive +24.4 on over 8.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects 11.2-11.2 tie with total 22.5 vs market's PIT -186 ML and 8.5 total, creating +15pp Bayesian over edge (65.2% posterior). MC 10k sims avg 10.1-9.7 confirms scoring blowout over 8.5 (+24 EV). Even spread value on Rockies +1.5 as fair cover 55.9% and omega 0.0; MLs neg EV post-vig despite away edge.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp away moderate (1.9%); spread sharp home strong (15.4%); overall favors PIT
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
-1.9 EV 39%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.4 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 39%
Colorado Rockies 153
  • Bayesian posterior 39.2% vs vigged implied 39.5%; model even ML -147
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC home cover 49% at even vs market implying PIT -1.86 equiv
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over (+15.2pp edge); Omega total 22.5, MC proj 19.8
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pirates ML (-175) +2.4 EV: extreme $191k whale steam + 65% model prob vs Rockies
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