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NHL
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets
Jets
Vegas Golden Knights
Knights
Vegas Golden Knights
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +29.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights -1.5
"Jets -22% injury hit + extreme $208k whales on VGK ML = +1.6 EV despite pred mkt fade"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
66%
Edge
+16.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Vegas Golden Knights None
62%
TOTAL under 5.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 10.8% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: home Boost: +4
Whale Activity Detected
$208752 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (97% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 84 trades Largest: $5000

Player Props Engine

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Winnipeg Jets

Vegas Golden Knights

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -177 / 153 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -175 / 154 -
Value Line - -177 / 150 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (235) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (146) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 2.5 (-125)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 158 / -158 -165 / 165 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Winnipeg Jets

G
Gustav Nyquist
(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Morgan Barron
(C) out — Barron (lower body) won't be an option for Winnipeg's final four games of the regular season, according to Ken Wiebe of The Winnipeg Free Press on Saturday.
Out
E
Elias Salomonsson
(D) out — out
Out
C
Colin Miller
(D) Injured Reserve — Miller (knee) has resumed skating but is not close to returning to the lineup, Mitchell Clinton of the Jets' official site reports Tuesday.
Injured Reserve

Vegas Golden Knights

No injuries reported
Game Preview
Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (235)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Gustav Nyquist Day-To-Day
Morgan Barron Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Vegas Golden Knights 60% Lean
"Jets -22% injury hit + extreme $208k whales on VGK ML = +1.6 EV despite pred mkt fade"
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +16.0%
Line Movement
Current Puck Line: VGK -1.5 (-185) | ML: VGK -185 / WIN +154 | Total: 5.5
Movement No significant movement
Away injury hit -22.1% (Barron OUT, Salomonsson OUT)
Slight +EV on VGK ML/puck at -185 (breakeven 64.9%, our 66%), but <5% edge caps sizing
Model: 48.4% win rate | n=384 — N=384 NHL; vs VGK 11-12, vs WIN 11-14; reduce conf across tiers per overconfidence gaps
FULL ANALYSIS
Jets hammered by -22.1% injury adj (Barron/Salomonsson OUT critical depth), tilting lambda to VGK despite pred mkt 61% WIN. Extreme $208k whales (97%) on VGK overrides, model fuses to 66% home win/+EV 1.6%. Under 5.5 fits NHL variance/low event proj 5.1 total; data degraded caps at leans.
SHARP MONEY
EXTREME whale volume $208k (9 wallets, 97% on VGK) overrides pred market lean to WIN
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Vegas Golden Knights -1.5
+1.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Vegas Golden Knights None
+1.6 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 5.5
+1.1 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Vegas Golden Knights -185
  • Injury cascade gives VGK 66% win prob vs 64.9% implied (breakeven edge 1.1%)
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Vegas Golden Knights -1.5
  • Jets -22.1% lambda adj from multiple OUTs boosts VGK puck cover prob to 58%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 5.5
  • NHL variance + Jets injuries reduce scoring (model proj 5.1 total goals)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Vegas +141 ML w/ Jets -25% injuries + extreme whales ($208k), Bayesian +11.4% edge vs model line
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