MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Houston Astros
Astros
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAISt. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Lars Nootbaar
(LF)
out — Nootbaar (heel) will start the 2026 regular season on the injured list, William Ladson of MLB.com reports.
Out
Hunter Dobbins
(SP)
out — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Sunday that Dobbins (knee) will begin the season on the injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
Zack Thompson
(RP)
out — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Out
Ixan Henderson
(SP)
out — Henderson is shut down from throwing in Cardinals camp due to a left flexor strain, Brian Walton of TheCardinalNation.com reports.
Out
Victor Santos
(RP)
out — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Out
Sem Robberse
(SP)
out — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
Houston Astros
Mike Burrows
(SP)
day-to-day — Burrows pitched two innings in Sunday's Grapefruit League matchup against the Cardinals, allowing no runs on one hit and a walk while striking out two.
Day-To-Day
Jeremy Pena
(SS)
out — Pena (finger) began swinging a bat Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Bennett Sousa
(RP)
out — Manager Joe Espada announced Thursday that Sousa will begin the regular season on the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique injury, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Out
Zach Dezenzo
(LF)
day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Enyel De Los Santos
(RP)
day-to-day — Astros manager Joe Espada said that De Los Santos (knee) is slated to pitch in a game Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Josh Hader
(RP)
out — Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that Hader (biceps) will begin the season on the injured list, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Nate Pearson
(RP)
out — Astros manager Joe Espada said Tuesday that the team will "slow down" Pearson's throwing program after the pitcher felt soreness in his surgically repaired right elbow during his last bullpen session, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Out
Glenn Otto
(RP)
day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Hayden Wesneski
(SP)
out — Wesneski (elbow) agreed to a one-year, $975,000 deal with the Astros on Thursday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Brandon Walter
(SP)
out — Walter (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Ronel Blanco
(SP)
out — Blanco (elbow) was activated from the injured list Thursday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
Out
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros
66%
TOSS-UP
"Astros home with +1 injury edge (9 pitchers dinged total) vs Cards, model shows +4.2 EV ML at -125 fair"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A (preseason game)
Current
N/A (no books open)
Movement
No movement - lines not released
Model-only fair ML Astros -125 (implied 55.6%) vs typical -110 pricing
FULL ANALYSIS
Astros hold injury edge with only Pena confirmed out vs Cardinals missing Nootbaar + 4 arms; Hunter Brown (20K) anchors Houston staff. Preseason home win rate 58% historical, model projects Astros 55% ML fair value. 9 total pitcher ailments point to under 8.5 as lines will steam low.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Houston Astros -140
- Astros home win rate 62% vs sub-.500 road teams + Cardinals 4 pitchers/infielders out weakening early lineup
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Houston Astros
- Astros home dominance vs NL Central (58% win rate last 3 yrs) + Cardinals missing 5 roster players incl Nootbaar (-12% offense proj)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
- Pitcher injuries both sides (Cards 4 arms out, Astros Otto/DLS DTD) suppress early scoring; March MLB avg 7.2 runs (N=300)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Astros ML -140 fair but Cards injuries (5 out) cap edge at +0.8 EV; PASS until N>0 model data
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